Arsenal FC vs Southampton FC, English Premier League 2024-25, Today Match Prediction

Arsenal FC vs Southampton FC Match Prediction & Analysis

Arsenal are unbeaten in 28 home league games against Southampton  (W19, D9) since a 1-0 loss in November 1987. Only against Fulham do Arsenal have a long unbeaten home run (31 games). Bukayo Saka made a firm statement on Wednesday when he said this is the year Arsenal will win the title. The Gunners came within touching distance of Man City in the last 2 seasons. The club have not lifted the trophy since Wenger’s 2003-04 invincible season. Saka’s statement does merit recognition and credibility since they beat PSG by 2 goals at the Emirates in a mid-week match up. 

The Saints on the other hand are fighting for different reasons. Russel Martin has a mountain to climb as the club has now lost 5 games and drawn 1. They could easily emulate last season’s Burnley. The caliber of the players you can argue is still that of Championship level. Southampton will have to adapt its style of play if they want to pick up results and most importantly continue being part of top-flight English football. 

Head-to-Head Record : Both teams have dueled in 96 games in all competitions. Half of those have been won by the Gunners (46) while the Saints have won 23, apart from 27 draws played out. 

Current Standings : The gunners sit comfortably in third with 14 points while newly promoted Saints sit in 19th position. 

TEAMS PREVIEW

Arsenal FC Preview

Although Arsenal are winless in their past 3 Premier League meetings with Southampton (D2, L1), this is a monstrous side Arteta has built. They went toe to toe with Man City at the Etihad, got a fairly good result against the reigning Europa League winners in Bergamo and cut wide open the Parisians in London on Tuesday. It means business to the boys in red and white. History would be made at the Emirates on Sunday if Arsenal secure a win. 

They’ve currently won 399 Premier League games, and would be the second side to reach 400 after Manchester United (428). On the flip side, only four teams have lost more Premier League away games than Southampton (246). Arsenal are also unbeaten in their last 40 Premier League home games against promoted sides (W35, D5) since a 1-0 loss to Newcastle in November 2010. Only Chelsea (43) and Manchester City (41) have had longer runs in the Premier League.

Players to watch out for 

Kai Havertz is loving life in the North of London. He’s now scored 6 goals in 6 Premier League home games, scoring in each of his last 4 at the Emirates. The last player to score in 5 straight home league games for the Gunners was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in September 2019. 

Stats That Matter

Arsenal are ranked 11th in ball possession with 47.2% averaging 14.2 shots per game. The Gunners score an average of 2 goals per match with a shooting accuracy of 47%. Kai Havertz is the top scorer with 3 goals this season. Both Leandro Trossard and Gabriel dos Santos Magalhaes have scored 2 goals each in the 6 matches played this season. The team has an average of 4 saves per game, the 7th best in the season. They have conceded an average of 0.83 goals per match.

Injury list - Arsenal will miss out on Kieran Tierney, Julien Timber, Martin Odegaard, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Ben White.

Arsenal Probable Starting Lineup -  Raya (GK), Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori (DEF), Saka, Partey, Rice, Martinelli, (MID), Havertz, Trossard (FWD).

Southampton FC Preview

Southampton’s 24 Premier League away games against Arsenal is the most one side has visited another without ever winning in the competition’s history (D8, L16). Southampton have underperformed their xG by almost five goals this season (7.7 xG, 3 goals), with only Manchester United having a poorer record in the Premier League so far (10.6 xG, 5 goals). 

Saints also have the lowest short conversion rate in the competition this term (4.4%). Pressure will be mounting on the manager. In the 1998-99 season, at this similar stage, Southampton had amassed only a single point, but still managed to stay up. The club will be hoping the same will be replicated this time round. 

The Saints need to go marching in

The manager slammed his players in the previous game by saying style of play is secondary to working hard, running and fighting for the ball. The players lacked spirit and are consequently paying for a sorry start to the season. Martin is on the verge of being the Premier League’s first sacking of the season. What the Saints need is goals. They’ve scored the least amount of goals among the 19 teams. 

In a situation like this, top managers would get the players to the drawing board and get back to basics. If you do the basics right, you might just get something out of it. Even a point against Arsenal could prove valuable and take them far into the season. The manager is seemingly walking on a tightrope with the board spit over his ability to lead. 

Player to watch out for

Aaron Ramsdale has a unique ability to lay a brick wall and shut down anything from passing through. Whoever asked him to play in goal made the correct decision. On his day, he is simply unstoppable. He was let go off only because of an inability to play out from the back with his feet. That is now a prerequisite for goalkeepers to have in becoming the complete package. 

Every or most top teams seem to play that way. Ramsdale could become the 9th player to play against Arsenal having previously played for them in the competition. The only one of eight keepers to keep a clean sheet was Emiliano Martinez, in a 3-0 win with Aston Villa in November 2020. 

Stats That Matter 

Southampton are ranked 4th in ball possession with 60.7% averaging 11.3 shots per game. The Saints score an average of 0.50 goals per match with a shooting accuracy of 31%. Tyler Dibling, Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Yukinari Sugawara have scored one goal each this season. The team has an average of 4.3 saves per game, the 5th best in the season. They have conceded an average of 2 goals per match.

Injury list - Gavin Bazunu, Kamaldeen Sulemana and Will Smallbone will all miss out on a trip to North London. 

Southampton Probable Starting Lineup -  Ramsdale (GK), Sugawara, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Taylor (DEF), Downes, Ugochukwu, Fernandes, Fraser, Cornet (MID), Dibling (FWD).

ARSENAL FC vs SOUTHAMPTON FC
Winning Prediction

Things are looking bleak for the away side. If they haven’t picked up a win yet, getting one at the Emirates seems impractical. Arteta and his men will quickly want to get the job done while their opponents are in a tight spot and focus on planning and strategizing for after the International break. 

With ex-gunner Ramsdale’s keeping abilities sparking on the given day, it could come back to haunt the title-contenders. But for now the Arsenal are very much in the driver's seat and we back them to win this contest. 

Arsenal to Win (3-1)

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