Atalanta BC vs Athletic Bilbao, UEFA Champions League 2025-26, Today Match Prediction

Atalanta BC vs Athletic Bilbao Match Prediction & Analysis

Athletic Club head to Italy for Matchday 7 with their playoff dreams still flickering, but standing in their way is an Atalanta side sitting comfortably in a perfect position for a direct entry into the last-16. With the stakes sky-high on both ends, all roads lead to the New Balance Arena for a 1:30 AM kickoff on January 22.

Current Standings: With 13 points from six matches, Atalanta are placed fifth in the league standings, while Athletic are down at the 28th spot with five points. 

Head-to-Head Record: This will be the first meeting between the teams in the Champions League.

TEAMS PREVIEW

Atalanta BC Preview

After last season’s heartbreak in the round of 16 playoffs, Raffaele Palladino’s men look determined to avoid deja vu. Despite opening their campaign with a bruising 4-0 loss to defending champs PSG, they’ve flipped the script spectacularly by rattling off four straight wins and a draw to plant themselves firmly in the top half. 

The highlight, of course, has been their gritty 2-1 triumph over Chelsea in the previous round, where Charles De Ketelaere stole the show with a goal and an assist. 

Atalanta enter the clash in fine rhythm, riding a four-match unbeaten run built on three wins and three clean sheets. Their January business has made noise too, snapping up Giacomo Raspadori from Athletic Club. However, Raspadori won’t feature in the midweek clash as new signings can only be registered for the next round of the competition.

Stats that matter 

1. Atalanta have managed clean sheets in three of their last five UCL matches.
2. The Bergamo club have lost only one of their last ten home European group stage/league phase matches (W5 D4).
3. All eight of Atalanta's goals in this season's league phase have come in the second half.

Team News 

Atalanta receive a timely lift as Ademola Lookman returns from AFCON duty and is set to slot straight back into the XI. Meanwhile, beyond their long-term casualties, Berat Djimsiti, who sat out the last Serie A fixture with an injury, is also expected to miss the midweek Champions League clash. 

Atalanta Probable XI - Carnesecchi  (GK); Kolsinac, Hien, Scalvini, Bernasconi, Lookman, De Ketelaere, Ederson, De Roon, Zappacosta, Scamacca. 

Athletic Bilbao Preview

Things aren’t exactly promising  for Athletic Club, neither in La Liga nor in Europe. Domestically they’ve slid to ninth after a four-game winless spell (three losses and a draw), and in the Champions League they’re staring at a group-stage exit unless they win the remaining games. 

Their UCL journey so far shows just one victory (3–1 vs Qarabag in October), sandwiched  by two draws and three defeats. The recent goalless stalemates—one frustrating against Slavia Praha, the other uplifting versus defending champions PSG—at least offer a flicker of hope. But heading into the final two games, Ernesto Valverde’s men will need more than moral victories to stay alive.

Stats that matter 

1. Athletic Club’s defence has been leaking badly in the last three games conceding 3+ goals, accounting for ten goals.
2. The Basque club have won only one of their last eight matches in UEFA competition (D2 L5).
3. Athletic Club have lost only three of their last 14 matches against Italian teams (W6 D5).

Team News 

Beyond the long-term absentees, Athletic may also be without Nico Serrano for the UCL trip as he was pulled from the Mallorca clash at the last minute with a thigh issue. 

Athletic Club Probable XI - Unai Simon (GK) ; Areso, Vivian  Berchiche, Boiro, de Galarreta, Jauregizar, Sancet, Nico Williams, Berenguer, Inaki Williams

ATALANTA BC vs ATHLETIC BILBAO
Winning Prediction

Atalanta have been a real force this season at home, winning six of their last 10 in all competitions and suffering defeat only twice—while shutting out visiting sides in five of those matches. Add their unbeaten UCL home record (2W, 1D) and Athletic’s grim return of just one win in their last 11 trips to Italy, and it’s hard not to lean towards an Atalanta victory here. 

Atalanta BC to win (2-1)

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