AFC Bournemouth vs Southampton FC, English Premier League 2024-25, Today Match Prediction

AFC Bournemouth vs Southampton FC Match Prediction & Analysis

This time round, Bournemouth face an opponent from the other end of the table in Southampton, after having previously been subdued by Liverpool at Anfield. The cherries had mustered 19 shots against the Reds for the second game running which was the joint most by an away team at Anfield, but to no avail. Iraola will want his men to convert opportunities and not give away possession so cheaply. 

Bournemouth won their first Premier League home fixture against Southampton in 2016 but are winless in all 5 top-flight meetings (D2, L3). Despite playing a newly promoted team, Bournemouth will want to secure a foothold on the game and add to their only win of the season. Funnily, each of the last 5 matches between Bournemouth and Southampton in all competitions have been won by the away team. 

As for Southampton, they’ve won their 3 previous games at the Vitality without conceding a goal. Manager Russel Martin was evidently infuriated when Ipswich bagged a late goal last week, as the Saints’ are still in search of their first Premier League victory after securing promotion. A much needed victory will take Southampton out of the relegation zone and into sunnier days that they’re somewhat used to experiencing on the southern coast. 

Head-to-Head Record : Both teams have faced each other 18 times in all competitions, Bournemouth winning 4, Southampton winning 10 - apart from 4 draws being played out.

Current Standings: Home side Bournemouth are in 13th position on the table with 5 points while visiting team Southampton are in perilous relegation position (19th) with only a single point to show. 

TEAMS PREVIEW

AFC Bournemouth Preview

Although Bournemouth are playing some decent football, they’re unable to convert those into victories. The Cherries have only won one of their last 9 matches in all competitions, a 3-2 Premier League victory against Everton in August (D2, L6). Their only win in seven Premier League fixtures played on a Monday was a 2-1 home victory against Crystal Palace in 2018. 

The good news is that the Cherries’ only defeat in 19 Premier League home matches against newly promoted sides (W11, D7) was a 1-0 defeat by Fulham back in 2019. Southampton boss, Russel Martin titled this game as a ‘Match of contrasts’, and praised Bournemouth for playing with composure and clarity. 

Unfortunately he will be the only manager by the touchline, as Andoni Iraolo is serving a touchline ban for picking up his third yellow card, against Liverpool. Speaking of bookings Marcos Senesi will want to be on his best behaviour, as he’s now picked up a yellow card in each of Bournemouth’s last 5 Premier League home matches. 

Bournemouth were relentless against Liverpool and I don’t see why that wouldn’t continue here. Iraolo confessed that his side needed to extract as many points as possible from Non-European playing sides. While playing on the front foot, the home side will have to be wary of not being overly open at the back.

Stats That Matter 

Bournemouth are ranked 16th in ball possession with 42.4% averaging 16.8 shots per game. The Cherries score an average of 1 goal per match with a shooting accuracy of 33%. Antoine Semenyo is the top scorer with 2 goals this season. Marcus Tavernier and Lewis Cook have scored one goal each. The team has an average of 5.6 saves per game, the best in the season. They have conceded an average of 1.60 goals per match.

Injury list - Midfielder Tyler Adams is the only player Iraola has ruled out of Monday’s fixture. 

Bournemouth Probable Starting Lineup - Kepa (GK), Araujo, Zabarnyi, Senesi, Kerkez (DEF), Christie, Cook, Semenyo, Kluivert, Tavernier (MID), Evanilson (FWD).

Southampton FC Preview

This has been an obsessively dry run for the Saints. They have picked up just one point from their opening 5 Premier League games, their fewest at this stage of the league season since 1998. They’ve scored the least amount of goals (2) out of all teams and shipped (9). 

It almost seems like the departure of Che Adams to Torino is proving painful. They are on a club record run of 18 winless Premier League matches (D5, L13) since a 1-0 home victory against Leicester City in March 2023. A Bournemouth victory would mean the Saints losing their opening 3 league away games for the first time in 12 years. 

Pundits have written off Southampton to go back down to where they came from, and the statistics are proving out to be true. Russel Martin has a lot of sorting out to do if he is to stay in the Premier League. Beginning with defending set pieces and corners. The Saints have conceded the most from corners and set-pieces (4), with both tallies the highest in the competition after 5 games. 

Among the current Premier League clubs, Southampton are on the joint longest active run of top-flight matches without a clean sheet (17). To make matters worse, Ben Diaz holds the Premier League record for most appearances without winning a game (19).

Stats That Matter 

Southampton are ranked 4th in ball possession with 60.8% averaging 11.8 shots per game. The Saints score an average of 0.40 goals per match with a shooting accuracy of 31%. Tyler Dibling and Yukinari Sugawara are the top scorers with 1 goal each. The team has an average of 4.6 saves per game, the 5th best in the season. They have conceded an average of 1.80 goals per match.

Players to watch out for

Taylor Hardwood-Bellis will have a busy night at the back. Being a UEFA European U-21 Championship winner with England, he has what it takes to pull off a performance. The 22 year old has great distribution skills, as the team likes playing out from the back. At the other end of the pitch, Adam Armstrong could come off the bench and add to a much needed Saints’ goal tally. 

Injury list - Will Smallbone and Kamaldeen Sulemana are Southampton’s only absentees. Jack Stephens, meanwhile, is serving his final game of a 3 match suspension. Gavin Bazunu also misses out with an Achilles injury. 

Southampton Probable Starting Lineup - Ramsdale (GK), Sugawara, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Charlie Taylor (DEF), Lallana, Downes Dibling, Fernandes, Fraser (MID) Archer (FWD).

AFC BOURNEMOUTH vs SOUTHAMPTON FC
Winning Prediction

Considering the problems stacked up against the Saints, it is certainly very difficult to look past Bournemouth. With the amount of firepower the Cherries possess going forward, they should amass a further 3 points and leapfrog into the top half of the table if other fixtures go their way. 

AFC Bournemouth to win (2-0)

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