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Croatia vs Italy, UEFA Euro 2024, Today Match Prediction

Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

Can Croatia Close Out the Group Stage with a win?

  • Croatia has scored 11 Goals in their last six outings
  • Croatia are undefeated against Italy, winning two and drawing three of the five head-to-head matches played.
  • Italy on average has scored 1.17 Goals per game in their last six appearances

Croatia 1- 1 Italy

Tournament: UEFA Euro 2024 | Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

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Croatia will be kicking themselves for conceding a late equalizer to Albania. Had they held on, they'd be in a stronger position facing Italy in their crucial Group B encounter. Currently bottom of the table with just a point, Croatia need a win against Italy on Monday to guarantee progression behind group leaders Spain. However, a draw could also suffice, as long as Albania doesn't pull off an upset against Spain.

For the defending champions, Italy, a draw secures their place in the next round. But manager Luciano Spalletti will undoubtedly be looking for a more convincing performance from his midfield and forwards, who managed only a single shot on target against Spain. With a win and a draw from their two games, Italy currently sit second in the group. 

Croatia Preview

Despite their low goal tally, Croatia boasts the second-highest number of shots in the tournament, behind only Germany. This attacking prowess might force manager Zlatko Dalić to consider including Ante Budimir in the starting lineup alongside Bruno Petković, or even as his replacement.  A key question remains: who will Dalić entrust with stopping Federico Chiesa? Joško Gvardiol and Ivan Perišić filled the left-back role in the previous matches, but deploying Borna Sosa there is a possibility. 

Croatia Probable Starting XI -  Dominik Livakivic (Goalkeeper); Juranovic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Borna Sosa (Defenders); Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, Mateo Kovacic ( Midfielders); Majer, Ante Budimir, Kramaric ( Forwards) 

ITA Over/Under Betting Tips

Croatia to hold on the ball possession under 52.5% 1.98

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It is going to an even contest in terms of controlling the possessions and Italy who on average have a ball possession of 55.5% in the competition will look to hold on to the ball much more and restrict Coratia;s threat on offense.

Italy Preview

The Azzurri had a disappointing outing against Spain. La Roja effectively neutralized Italy's attacking threats, as evidenced by the limited chances created. This was largely due to Spain's success in shutting down Federico Chiesa with Marc Cucurella's tight marking. However, Italy might see a resurgent Chiesa exploit Croatia's potentially slower defenders.

Meanwhile, the Azzurri are sweating over the fitness of Federico Dimarco, whose bruised calf casts doubt on his availability for the game. Inter Milan's versatile full-back, Matteo Darmian, is likely to deputize if Dimarco doesn't recover. Beyond this potential change, Luciano Spalletti might be tempted to freshen things up by introducing Genoa striker Mattia  Scamacca and midfielder Nicolò Fagioli in place of Andrea Belotti and Jorginho. 

Italy Probable Starting XI - Gianluigi Donnarumma (Goalkeeper); Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Cambiasso/Darmian (Defenders); David Frattesi, Jorginho/Fagioli, Nicolò Barella (Midfielders) ; Lorenzo Pellegrini, Scamacca/Retegui, Federico Chiesa 

Over/Under Goals Total Tips

Total Goals Under 2.5 1.69

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The average goals per match in the head to head matches between the both the teams is 2.20 and we predict another low scoring game where the total goals scored in the match to be under 2.5.

The onus is on the Croatian side in this crucial Group B encounter to attack the fragile Italian defensive line. Italy might look to absorb all the pressure the Croatian strikers might pose and then look to strike back later in the game. It is going to be a defensive battle between both teams, and neither side boasts a finisher who can score goals late in the closing minutes, so a low-scoring game is on the cards. If Italy can survive and finish this game, they're safe. For the Croatians, they need to better the goal difference of Albania if they tie this game, or they need to win at any cost to advance to the next round. 

We are predicting the game to end in a tie with both teams scoring a goal 

Croatia 1- 1 Italy


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Author: Neev Chopra