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Can the Pharaohs Topple the Reigning Kings in Agadir?
We predict a draw (1-1) and Ivory Coast to win penalties.
Tournament: Africa Cup of Nations, 2025-26 | Venue: Adrar Stadium
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After a gruelling extra-time battle with Benin in the round of 16, Egypt—the most successful nation in AFCON history with seven titles—now face their toughest test of the tournament against defending champions Ivory Coast.
In contrast, the Ivorians cruised through their last-16 tie with a commanding 3-0 win over Burkina Faso. Scheduled for 12:30 AM IST, this clash will round off the quarter-finals, with the winner set to meet the victor of Mali vs Senegal in the semi-finals.
Head-to-Head Record: Egypt holds the upper hand in this fixture, with 11 wins to Ivory Coast's 6 across 21 total meetings.
Egypt breezed through Group B at the top, but Benin made them sweat in the knockouts. The round of 16 clash was dragged into extra time after Benin struck a late equaliser seven minutes from full-time. Crucially, the Pharaohs avoided a repeat of last edition’s round of 16 nightmare, where they were knocked out on penalties by DR Congo.
This time, Yasser Ibrahim struck early in extra time and Mohamed Salah added a late clincher to secure a hard-fought 3-1 win and a quarterfinal berth. Notably, the last two times Egypt progressed beyond the quarters, they went all the way to the final.
However, Egypt have been dealt with a blow with experienced defender Mohamed Hamdi ruled out after being forced off before half-time against Benin, making him unavailable for the quarterfinal clash.
Egypt’s round of 16 display proved they’re far more than just Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush. Marwan Attia (a goal and an assist) and Yasser Ibrahim (1 goal, 12 clearances, 11/14 duels won) led by example, while others chipped in with key moments. That collective effort will give Hossam Hassan plenty of confidence heading into the quarters.
Egypt Probable Starting Lineup - El Shenawy; Hany, Ibrahim, Rabia, Ashour; Attia, Fathy, Adel; Salah, Marmoush, Trezeguet
Ivory Coast entered the 2025 AFCON as defending champions, already doing better than the 2023 holders who bowed out in the last 16. Their path has mirrored Egypt’s, topping their group and scoring three times in the round of 16.
But the Elephants did it with far more control, firing 21 shots with 58% possession as Amad Diallo, Yan Diomande and Bazoumana Toure wrapped up the job within 90 minutes.
However, their biggest AFCON nemesis now stands in the way. From 1998 to 2006 to 2022, Ivory Coast have had their campaigns ended by Egypt on penalties, and when it has not gone to spot kicks, it has been brutal, such as the 4-1 semi-final thumping in 2008. If the Elephants finally break the curse, a daunting semi-final against either Mali or Senegal awaits.
Amad Diallo stole the spotlight again in the round of 16, netting Ivory Coast’s opener — his third of the tournament — and supplying an assist. Yan Diomande, widely scouted by top European clubs, also opened his account with a composed finish. All eyes will be on that duo once more as they look to probe and punish Egypt’s backline.
Ivory Coast Probable Starting Lineup - Y. Fofana; Doue, Kossonou, Ndicka, Konan; Kessie, Sangare, S. Fofana; Diallo, Guessand, Diomande.
There’s little to separate the two sides on paper, though Ivory Coast have looked sturdier at the back, conceding just once. Their real obstacle is psychological, something always seems to shift when they face Egypt, having never beaten the Pharaohs in an AFCON knockout and doing so only once in the competition’s history.
Egypt, meanwhile, could feel the effects of 120 gruelling minutes against Benin. If the Elephants can shake off the mental block, this might be their best opening yet. Even the bookmakers lean Ivory Coast’s way, pricing the Elephants at 2.45 for a win, with Egypt’s chances at 3.40 and the draw priced at 2.88.
We predict a draw (1-1) and Ivory Coast to win penalties.
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