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England vs Switzerland, UEFA Euro 2024, Today Match Prediction

Merkur Spiel Arena, Dusseldorf

Penalty Curse or Redemption Arc? England Faces High-Stakes Quarterfinal

  • England holds a dominant head-to-head record (17 wins, 0 losses in 24) over Switzerland
  • Switzerland are averaging 2 goals per game in their last six outings
  • The average goals per game in the head to head matches between England and Swizterland is 2.44

Switzerland to win (1-2)

Tournament: UEFA Euro 2024 | Venue: Merkur Spiel Arena, Dusseldorf

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It's the third quarterfinal of the Euro 2024. The much-fancied England will take on Switzerland, who have appeared to be a dark horse for the Euro Cup based on their performance. The match will take place at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf on Saturday. This will be the third meeting between the teams at the Euros, with England having won two and drawing one. 

England’s run to the quarterfinals was far from impressive, as they huffed and puffed past the group stage by winning  once and scoring just two goals. The story was no different in the last-16 as they laboured their way to a win over Slovakia by 2-1 in extra-time, thanks to late goals from Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. 

In contrast, Switzerland has had an impressive run into the quarterfinals, holding a strong German side to a 1-1 draw in the group stage, and breezed past the defending champions, Italy, by two goals to nil in the round of 16. If we were to measure the confidence of these two teams now, there is no doubt who will be the most confident going into the game. 

England Preview

England are not known for playing an attractive brand of football, yet by their standards they have looked timid and bereft of ideas on the field. In the game against Slovenia in the last 16, they looked clueless once they conceded an early goal. After that it was just about passing sideways and backwards, to the point where Pickford had to take up the reins and egg them to push forward.  The crux of their problems lies in the midfield. Often they lost control of possession in the midfield for their opposition to romp home the advantage. 

It was visibly evident in their game against Denmark, where they ceded control in the midfield and the likes of Hjulmand and Hojbjerg made a lot of issues up the field. And it doesn't help that Southgate used three combinations in the midfield with Trent Arnold, Mainoo and Gallagher in their four games at the Euro 2024. Furthermore, the pair of Rice and Mainoo started in the match against Slovakia, and have only played 338 minutes together, whereas Xhaka and Freuler have started in Switzerland's last 30 games. 

Apart from the issues in the midfield, the Slovakians exposed their back line as they put together 13 shots that produced an expected goals total of 2.09. Meanwhile, England only managed two shots on target in 120 minutes of that game, and have averaged 0.93 xG per game, that's lower than 17 other teams at the Euro 2024. As far as changes are concerned, Guehi will miss out due to suspension and Ezri Konsa will likely take his place. With Guehi out, Southgate may also be tempted to play a back 3 formation.

England Probable Starting XI - Pickford (Goalkeeper) ; Walker, Konsa, Stokes, Trippier (Defenders) ; Bellingham, Rice, Mainoo (Midfielders) ; Saka, Foden, Kane ( Forwards) 

Switzerland Preview

Switzerland has impressed one and all in the tournament, from pushing Germany to their extreme to dominating Italy in the last 16. Murat Yakin's side has looked disciplined from the outset, aided by the quality and experience in the squad. Add to that, they don't depend on one or two individuals, as it's evident from the fact that they have seven different goal scorers in this tournament. 

However, the real strength of the team lies in the midfield, led by the experienced Xhaka and Remo Frueler. Both of these players have the ability to expose the cracks in the opposition’s midfield and feed balls into the dangerous areas. Frueler has a goal and two assists in the tournament. 

Unlike Frueler, Xhaka may not have direct involvement in goals, though he has made 51 line-breaking passes in the tournament, and 33 of them have broken an opponent’s midfield line. In terms of tactics, the Swiss, when out of possession, take the shape of 5-1-2-2 or 5-4-1. That deep back five will have a role to play on Saturday as England struggled to break down the same formation against Denmark and Serbia. On top of that, the Swiss have conceded the joint fewest shots on target in this competition. With the likes of Akanji and Schar guarding the backline with Sommer, England will have one hell of a battle at hand. 

In terms of changes, Silvan Widmer, returning after serving his suspension, will likely occupy his preferred position on the right. It means Ndoye, who excelled in his absence, will have to sit out, or Yakin will have to ponder sacrificing Reider to occupy him on the right flank. 

Switzerland  Probable Starting XI -Sommer (Goalkeeper) ; Schar, Rodriguez, Akanji ( Defenders) ; Widmer, Xhaka, Freuler, Aebischer ( Midfielders) ; Ndoye, Vargas, Embolo (Forwards) 

England appears heavily favored for this quarterfinal, boasting a head-to-head advantage of 17 wins in their last 24 meetings with Switzerland, with no losses. However, Switzerland's recent form in European competitions is impressive, with only one loss in their last 14 matches (five wins and eight draws, although two draws resulted in penalty defeats).

Statistics aside, England's performance in this tournament has been less than stellar. They were fortunate to survive the last round, relying on a dramatic 95th-minute goal by Bellingham to avoid elimination. Additionally, England has a tendency to adopt a conservative approach in high-pressure games, which could lead to a penalty shootout. Historically, penalty shootouts haven't been kind to England, as they've lost seven of their last nine across all competitions.  

So, we are going to take a big call here. Southgate’s men's journey ends here in the quarterfinals of Euro 2024. It's not coming home! 

Switzerland to win (1-2)


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Author: Vishnu Reddy