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Spain vs England, UEFA Euro 2024, Today Match Prediction

Olympiastadion, Berlin

Can England Overcome Midfield Struggles Against Spain's Supremacy?

  • England won four of the seven head to head matches played against Spain
  • The average goals per game in h2h games between Spain & England is 2.43 goals.
  • Spain scored 13 goals and conceded 3 goals in the 2024 EuroCup.

Spain to Win (2-1)

Tournament: UEFA Euro 2024 | Venue: Olympiastadion, Berlin

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After fifty matches and 30 days, we are down from 24 to the final two. In an epic showdown to claim bragging rights for the top team in Europe, Spain will lock horns with England at the iconic Olympiastadion stadium in Berlin. On Sunday, Spain will be aiming for their fourth European title, while England, the 2020 finalists, will be after their first.

On their way to their fifth Euro Cup final, La Roja have beaten the likes of Italy, Croatia, Germany, and finally France in the semis. Three of the four teams are among the top ten in FIFA's most recent rankings. In the semifinal, they overcame France 2-1 after falling behind a goal inside the first ten minutes. 

Likewise, England too had to come from behind as they eventually beat the Dutch thanks to a 90th-minute strike from the substitute, Ollie Watkins. If Spain manages to win on Sunday, they will become the first European team to win four major tournament finals in a row. However, for England, it will be about bringing home a trophy after 58 years of waiting. 

Spain Preview

So far in the competition, Spain has scored the most number of goals (13), conceded the least number of goals (3),  and is the only team to have won all their games. Without a shred of a doubt, they have been the best team in the competition. But, then, the stats won't matter much for La Fuente and his team if they can't cross the final hurdle.

Come the final, all eyes will be on the young sensation, Lamine Yamal. With that wonder goal in the 21st minute of the game against France, the 16-year-old became the youngest goalscorer at a major tournament (World Cup/Euros), breaking the record held by the great Pele. At the same time, he has created 6 big chances at the Euros, while the whole England team has created 6. With 3 assists and 1 goal, he is certainly a contender for player of the tournament. Apart from Lamine, Olmo with two assists and three goals, Fabian Ruiz with two goals and two assists, and Nico Williams with one goal and an assist have been the standouts for Spain in the tournament. 

Tactically, La Fuente is likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation with Dani Carvajal back as the full-back, replacing Jesus Nevas. However, the most sought-out battle will be between Cucurella and Saka. In his last battle against Saka in the EPL, Cucurella attempted eight tackles, with five being successful, and collected a card in the process. Keeping Saka in check will be instrumental for Spain's chances in this contest. So watch out for this duel! 

Spain Probable Starting XI -  Unai Simon (Goalkeeper) ; Carvajal, Laporte, Nacho, Marc Cucurella (Defenders) ; Fabian Ruiz, Rodri, Dani Olmo (Midfielders) ; Lamine Yamal, Morata, Nico Williams ( Forwards)


ESP Over/Under Betting Tips

Spain to hold on the ball possession over 55.5% 1.75

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Spain is averaging 57% ball possession in the tournament, while England are averaging 58.3% ball possession in the tournament. Spain, who are better on both the offensive and defensive end, will look to control the ball majority of the time and we back them to hold on to the ball possession for over 55.5% in the finals.

England Preview

Unlike their counterparts, Southgate’s men didn't start  their Euro 2024 campaign well, as they huffed and puffed past their group stage with just one win and two draws while scoring just two goals. However, with an impressive showing against the Netherlands in the semis, where they dominated the game with 59% possession, the Three Lions appear to have peaked nicely for the final. For Sunday’s final, Southgate will want more of the same from his team, but he will be aware that his team is unlikely to get similar stats in possession. 

That said, the three Lions simply can't afford to let the likes of Ruiz, Rodri, and Olmo dictate the game in the midfield. This is where someone like Rice comes into play. The Arsenal star has completed more tackles (12) and won back more balls (25) than any other English player in the tournament. 

Aside from the midfield threat, Spain possesses two of the best wingers in the competition, and it will be up to  Saka-Walker and Trippier-Guehi to keep them in check, just as they did against the Dutch by keeping Gakpo quiet. If they manage to do all the above things right, the likes of Palmer, Watkins, and Toni coming off the bench will cause a lot of trouble for a tiring Spain in the latter stages of the game. 

From a tactical point of view, ever since Southgate deployed the 3-4-2-1 formation, England have looked the part on the pitch. So no changes in terms of formation are expected. However, they could think of starting Luke Shaw over Trippier and Watkins (scored in the semis) over a struggling Kane. But then, Southgate isn't that kind of man who would bench his captain for a game as big as the final.

England Probable Starting XI - Pickford (Goalkeeper) ; Walker, Guehi Stokes, Trippier/Luke Shaw(Defenders) ; Bellingham, Rice, Mainoo (Midfielders) ; Saka, Foden, Kane ( Forwards) 


Over/Under Goals Total Tips

Over 2.5 2.63

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Spain is the leading goal scorer in the tournament and they are averaging a minimum of two goals per game, while England in the knockout rounds have been scoring at least one goal. We predict the total goals scored in the 2024 Euro Cup final to be over 2.5.

The Euro 2024 final will mark the first instance that the two sides will be playing against each other in a major tournament final. It will also be the third meeting between the teams in the European Championship with England winning the previous two. However, Spain has won 7 of their last 14 meetings between the teams, while England won 3-2 in the last competitive match played between the teams. 

A couple of years ago, in the same tournament, Southgate’s men stumbled across the finish line as they lost out to Italy in the 2020 Euro Cup final in penalty shootouts. The one thing that they would have learned from that painful defeat was how not to sit back over an early goal advantage. Given their experience from that final and taking into consideration Spain’s performance in the competition, we expect some goals in this contest. Still, it's a tough game to call, but if England maintains parity with Spain until the 75th minute of the game, it's theirs to lose.  Spain may be bookies favourites, but we like to take the punt with Spain. 

We are backing Spain to Win the 2024 EuroCup Final!

Spain to Win (2-1)

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Author: Vishnu Reddy