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Spain vs Germany, UEFA Euro 2024, Today Match Prediction

MHP Arena, Stuttgart, Baden-Württemberg

Can Spain Break the Host Nation Curse Against Germany?

  • Spain (4 wins) and Germany (2 wins) have met 9 times, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
  • Spain are unbeaten in their last six outings and are averaging 3.17 goals per game
  • Germany won four of their last five appearances and are averaging 2 goals per game.

Germany to win (1-2)

Tournament: UEFA Euro 2024 | Venue: MHP Arena, Stuttgart, Baden-Württemberg

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The Quarterfinals of the Euro 2024 beckons, with the two powerhouses of world football, Spain and Germany, facing off on Friday in Stuttgart at the MHP Arena. This will be the fourth meeting between the teams in a European Championship, with Spain winning two of them. Interestingly both the teams have three Euro Cup titles under their belts. 

Both teams advanced to quarterfinals in a similar fashion, topping their groups during the group stages then effortlessly defeating their opponents in the round-of-16. On their road to the quarterfinals, Spain thrashed Georgia 4-1 in the last 16, and they remain the only team to have won all of their games in Euro 2024. Meanwhile, with two wins and a draw against Switzerland in group stages, the Germans swept aside Denmark in the round-of-16 by two goals to nil.  Whatever the outcome of the match, Spain and Germany have been the two best teams of the tournament, and the winner is expected to lift the cup on July 14 at the Olympiastadion Berlin. 

Spain Preview

Luis de la Furente's team has won all the group games of a Euro since 2008, the year when Vincent del Bosque’s team lifted the trophy for the 2nd time for Spain. Apart from the guy named Torres playing for both sides, the appealing styles of play of the teams have piqued the interest of pundits and fans, then and now. However, unlike his predecessor, Luis de la Furente's side isn't all about tiki-taka and keeping hold of the ball at all times, but an advanced version of it. The football pundits are calling it “possession with purpose.” 

La Roja of 2024 likes to go forward at every opportunity, and make the most of their every move. It does help that they now have the services of quality wingers like Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. The duo’s ability to assess the half spaces and provide width and pace in the wings has resulted in many problems for the opposition backline. This threat through the wingers is the one thing that the Euro 2008-winning team never had. Thus, making them even more dangerous. In terms of their offensive gameplay, La Roja has maintained an overall passing accuracy of 90.6% till now. While that said, Spain has conceded only once in this tournament, and that too through an own goal by Normand against Georgia, making them the team that has conceded the least number of goals in the tournament. 

Apart from the wingers, the likes of Rodri and Fabian Ruiz in the midfield and left-back Cucurella, complementing Nico Williams, have been the standouts. As far as injuries and changes are concerned, Nacho Fernandez has recovered from his injury, while it's unlikely that La Furente will think about bringing some change into the XI. 

Spain Probable Starting XI - Unai Simon (Goalkeeper) ; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella ( Defenders) ; Pedri, Luis, Rodri (Midfielders) ; Nico Williams, Alvaro Morata and Lamine Yamal (Forwards) 

Germany Preview

Like their counterparts,  Die Mannschaft loves keeping possession and scoring a lot of goals. They have an average around 65.19% possession per game in the Euro's, while Spain’s is at 60.31 %. In terms of goals scored, they have scored 10 goals till now, while conceding two goals. Not much of a difference can be seen in terms of goals scored and conceded, but Germany has the advantage over Spain in terms of the number of defensive duels won, as they have an average of 67% compared to Spain's 58%. If and when Spain makes a mistake, Germany has the players to grab that opportunity. 

With three goals in four games, Jamal Musiala will be the front-runner to create an impact for Germany in this game. Then they have Havertz ( 2 goals and 1 assist), Gundogan (1 goal and 1 assist), and from the bench, they have the dangerous Fullkrug (2 goals) ready to make an impact. But the engine room for Germany is Tony Kroos. He has successfully completed 95% of passes in this tournament, the highest by a player in the Euro Cup since 1980. Also he leads the numbers in terms of creating the most number of line-breaking passes (125). 

As far as changes are concerned, Jonathan Tah will be available for selection after serving his timeout for the last game due to suspension. Expect him to start the quarterfinal on Friday. The only dilemma  in Nagelsmann's mind will be who to choose between Sane and Writz. 

Germany  Probable Starting XI - Neuer (Goalkeeper) ; Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Raum (Defenders) ; Kroos, Andrich, Kroos, Gundogan (Midfielders) ; Musiala, Sane, Havertz (Forwards) 

Over/Under Goals Total Tips

Total Goals over 2.5 2.15

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Spain are averaging 2.25 goals per game scoring 9 goals, while the host nation Germany has scored 10 goals in four games averaging 2.5 goals per game. Both teams are in good offensive form and a high-scoring game is on the cards, and we predict the total goals to be over 2.5.

The last time these two teams met was in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and the game ended in a 1-1 draw. Meanwhile, Spain are unbeaten in their last four major tournaments against Germany. However, La Furente's side will be aware of the fact that his side will have to create history if they are to progress into the semis of the 2024 Euro, as no Spanish team has ever beaten a host nation in a World Cup or Euro Cup. 

Niagelsmann's side, on the other hand, will take confidence from the fact that the German side are unbeaten in their last 8 games on their home-turf against Spain. However, this is a knockout game in a major tournament, and the pressure of playing in front of home fans with the disappointments of past tournaments will be in their minds. 

It is not an easy game to call. Given the numbers of both teams in Euro 2024, one can expect a cagey affair. Given the number of experienced players in that German side, we like to go in favour of Germany in this one. 

Germany to win (1-2)


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Author: Vishnu Reddy