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France vs Poland, UEFA Euro 2024, Today Match Prediction

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

Can Les Bleus Find Their Winning Touch? Poland Eyes Spoiler Role

  • France and Poland have played 4 matches with France winning 3, Poland winning 0 and 1 draw, averaging 1.5 goals per match.
  • Poland has scored 12 Goals in their last 6 six outings
  • France are averaging 2.23 Goals per match in 2024

France to Win (2-0)

Tournament: UEFA Euro 2024 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

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Two-time Euro Cup winners are set to face already-eliminated Poland at the home ground of Borussia Dortmund in the final rounds of the group stage matches. Les Bleus’ came in as favourites, but they have failed to live up to the hype as they haven't performed worthy of the favourites tag. 

Nevertheless, they are currently sitting pretty safe behind the Netherlands in the points table, needing just a draw on Tuesday to qualify for the next round. Interestingly, France hasn't won the final match of a major tournament since the 2006 FIFA World Cup. 

Poland, on the other hand, having already been eliminated, will need to find a means to spur themselves on before they set out to play their last match of the tournament. Following victories over Turkey and Ukraine in the run-up to the Euros, they would have anticipated a better performance. 

If anything, they would have expected to secure points against Austria, not going down 3-1 in a disappointing fashion. Irrespective of the result on Tuesday, Poland will finish their campaign at the bottom of the table as the head-to-head record supersedes the overall goal difference. 

France Preview

France might not have lost a game, but they could have if not for that disallowed goal from Xavi Simmons in the game against the Netherlands. They secured a win in their opening game on the back of an own goal versus Austria. Against the Netherlands, Les Bleus certainly missed their star man and captain, Kylian Mbappe, in the attack, as he missed out due to the horrific injury suffered in the Austrian game. This meant Deschamps had to adopt a 4-4-1-1 formation instead of the traditional 4-2-3-1.

Despite their lack of sting in the attacking third, the defence was top-notch in both games, led by Theo Hernandez and N'Golo Kante. The clean sheet against the Netherlands was their fourth straight one in the last four Internationals. The last player to score against them was Chile's Dario Osorio. Given Poland's ineptness in creating chances, France has a good chance to extend that record.

The news from the French camp is that the captain is likely to make a return to the 11 against Austria. Thus, it will pose a dilemma for Deschamps: whether to bench the most favored Rabiot or Tchouameni. Other than that, no change is expected from the French starting XI. 

France Probable Starting XI: Maignan (Goalkeeper); Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez (Defenders); Kante, Rabiot, Griezmann (Midfielders); Thuram, Dembele, Mbappe (Forwards) 

FRA Over/Under Betting Tips

France Ball Possession under 63.5% 1.75

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France has averaged 55.5% possession compared to Poland's 40.5% in the tournament so far. Despite this, both teams will likely vie for control of the midfield, so we predict France's possession to stay under 63.5% in this competitive match.

Poland Preview

Michal Probeirz took charge of Poland only in September 2023. Since then, the team has had an unbeaten run with 6 wins and 4 draws. Unfortunately, it all ended in the Euro, triggering yet another early exit for Poland. This is their fourth group-stage exit in the last five tournaments. That said, they were without the services of their star striker and Blaugrana superstar, Lewandowski, in their opening game against the Dutch. 

He was subbed on in the 60th minute against Austria and made minimal impact. Lewandowski is the one that makes the side click; he is the target man, who can score with either his foot or his head. Lewandowski will likely play the game on Tuesday.

Poland's style of play is to get crosses into the box, which complements Lewandowski in the final third and his aerial finishing. The man who creates most of those chances is Nicolai Zalewski. His presence on the left wing would create a lot of problems for the French defence. 

Zalewski has created more chances (4), shot more shots (7), and completed the most passes (68) in this Euro 2024 for Poland. Poland's chance of upsetting France depends on Zalewski and Lewandowski. Apart from the fitness issues surrounding their centre-back Bartosz Salamon, a straight swap for Lewandowski with another forward will likely be the only change made to the starting lineup. 

Poland Probable Starting XI: Szczesny (Goalkeeper); Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior (Defenders); Frankowski, Zielinski, Slisz, Moder, Zalewski (Midfielders); Swiderski, Lewandowski (Forwards)

Over/Under Goals Total Tips

Total Goals under 2.5 2.40

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In their head-to-head meetings, France and Poland average 1.5 goals per match. With France's strong defense (1 goal conceded) and Poland's struggles (2 goals scored, 5 conceded), France is favored to win by a maximum of two goals. We predict the total goals scored to be under 2.5.

Barring an underperformance by Les Bleus and an overachievement by Poland, the two-time Euro Champions will be the overwhelming favorites to win this contest. With a solid backline led by Theo Hernandez and anchored by N'Golo Kante, the chances of an upset happening are highly unlikely. The return of Kylian Mbappe will further bolster the front line, making this a full-strength French team taking the field on Tuesday.

The last time Poland won a game in a FIFA tournament was in the 1982 World Cup. Historically, Poland has faced the French 4 times in FIFA tournaments and won only once. Given their weak defence and too much dependence on two players, Lewandowski and Zalewski, it may not come to anyone's surprise that the French are touted as the favourites by the bookies.

Our prediction is for a dominant performance by France, winning the match by two goals and qualifying for the Round of 16 by topping Group D.

France to Win (2-0)


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Author: Vishnu Reddy