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Germany vs Denmark, UEFA Euro 2024, Today Match Prediction

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

All Eyes on the Backline: Can Germany Overcome Denmark's Defensive Wall?

  • Germany are averaging 2 Goals per game in their last six outings
  • The average Goals per game in the head to head matches between Germany and Denmark is 2.50
  • Kai Havertz (1 Goal) and Jamal Musiala (2 Goals) are key on the offensive end for Germany

Germany to Win (1-0)

Tournament: UEFA Euro 2024 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

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Three-time European Champions Germany cruised through the group stage again, topping their group. They've only finished outside the top eight three times (2000, 2004, 2021) in EURO Cup history. This Saturday at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund's home ground, they have a prime chance to reach the quarterfinals. However, a slight chink in Germany's armor was revealed in their final group stage match, a 1-1 draw against Switzerland. A late injury-time goal by Füllkrug was needed to salvage a point.

Denmark, on the other hand, secured second place in Group C with a dull 0-0 draw against Serbia in their final group game. This extended their run to three consecutive draws in a group that produced the joint-lowest goalscoring total (seven goals in six games) in the Men's Euro Cup group stage. The previous edition's semifinalists will need to significantly improve their attacking performance to challenge the hosts in the round of 16. 

Germany Preview

In contrast to their first two easy victories, the match against Switzerland proved to be a real struggle. After scoring seven goals in the opening games, Die Mannschaft found it difficult to find the net, only equalizing in the final minutes. However, the game might have provided them with valuable lessons for the future. So, what did Switzerland do right to cause problems for the Germans?

Unlike their previous opponents, the Swiss weren't afraid to press the Germans, particularly their defense. This tactic kept Tony Kroos in check. Xhaka and his teammates around him made it more difficult for Kroos to build play from the back than he had against other teams. This meant a key element of Germany's attack was compromised. Secondly, they used their wingers to great effect, especially N'Yeoffo, who was a constant threat going forward. This forced Andrich to drop deeper between the two center backs, leaving Goretzka in the unfamiliar role of a pivotal role he isn't accustomed to.

By employing a back three and two wingbacks, Switzerland effectively contained the German attack. They denied Germany space to operate centrally, a tactic that often disrupts their style of play which relies on central attacks. To address these issues in upcoming games, Germany could start Leroy Sane for his width against a five-man backline and a target man like Füllkrug, who boasts an impressive two goals in just three shots on target. As far as injuries and changes are concerned, Rüdiger is out with a hamstring problem, and Tah is suspended.

Germany Probable Starting XI: Neur (Goalkeeper); Kimmich, Schlotterbeck, Rudiger, Mittelstadt (Defenders) ; Kroos, Andrich, Musiala, Gundogan, Writz (Midfielders) ; Kai Havertz (Forward) 

Denmark Preview

Leading up to the tournament, Denmark averaged 1.5 goals scored and only conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 matches. Their defensive solidity has met expectations, but they haven't been as prolific offensively as usual. So far, they've only managed two goals in the competition, one from Eriksen and another from Hjulmand. This is despite Eriksen creating the most key passes (13) of any player in the tournament so far, highlighting the struggles of the Danish forwards.

Denmark's young attacking star, Rasmus Hojlund, has had a mediocre tournament. His inability to control passes effectively disrupts the team's build-up play. However, the lack of creativity from his teammates also deserves some blame. They haven't been providing him with the quick balls in transition that could utilize his acceleration to its fullest.

The return of midfielder Thomas Delaney from illness could displace Morten Hjulmand, who is one yellow card away from suspension. Despite Hojlund's recent struggles, he is expected to keep his place due to the threat his pace poses to the German backline on counter-attacks.

Denmark Probable Starting XI: Schmeichel (Goalkeeper) ; Andersen, Christensen, Vestergaard,  Bah, Maehle(Defenders); Hojbejerg, Delaney, Erickson (Midfielders) ; Hojlund, Wind (Forwards) 

Despite an underwhelming performance in their final group stage match against Switzerland, Die Mannschaft remain the favorites to win this round-of-16 clash against their Scandinavian rivals, Denmark. Considering Denmark's cautious style of play, we might see a similar pattern to Germany's games against Scotland and Hungary. However, Denmark has a reputation for defensive solidity. 

In the past two years, they've conceded a mere 14 goals, averaging only 0.8 goals per game. In contrast, Germany has conceded significantly more, allowing 26 goals in the last two years for an average of 1.7 per game. While the Switzerland game exposed some vulnerabilities in the German defense, it remains to be seen if Denmark can exploit these weaknesses effectively.

The head-to-head record is even: both teams have won one out of two meetings, with the last two encounters ending in 1-1 draws. Based on past results and recent form, Germany appears favored to win in regulation time and advance to the quarterfinals.

Germany to Win (1-0)

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Author: Vishnu Reddy