Italy vs Spain, UEFA Euro 2020, Today Match Prediction

Italy vs Spain Match Prediction & Analysis

Right from the very first match on the opening night of the tournament, Italy have announced themselves as one of the favourites for the competition, to the surprise of plenty.

They have been scoring goals much more so than traditional Italian teams of the past, while keeping that defensive solidity that they are famous for. With 11 goals scored and just two conceded, they have been a formidable opponent throughout.

For them to reach the final here after failing to even qualify for the World Cup in 2018 shows the marvellous job that Roberto Mancini has performed.

Spain will have ambitions of their own, but have often flattered to deceive so far in this tournament. With just two points from their first two games, they qualified from their group in second place, and have then needed extra time to beat Croatia and penalties to see of Switzerland in their knockout games.

Against this rugged Italy defence, can they hope to improve going forward?

TEAMS PREVIEW

Italy Preview

World Ranking: 7

Best Historical Finish at the Euros: Winners, 1968

Reasons to be cheerful:

     Have won every game so far

     Won six of their seven meetings with Spain at Euros

Reasons to be fearful:

     In form fullback Spinazzola will miss the remainder of the tournament through injury

     Spain have the upper hand at Euros in recent years

Having spent the group stage in their home country, cheered on by thousands of supporters, Italy now face being in a stadium where virtually no Italian fans are present due to Covid restrictions.

Despite this, the group of players arrive in England in fine spirits, knowing that if they can continue their 13-match winning streak for just two more games, they will be champions.

The main blow coming into this game is the loss of brilliant fullback Leonardo Spinazzola to an injury picked up in the Quarter Final victory over Belgium. The Roma player has been one of the Italians best performers at these championships, and his miss will come as a big blow. Chelsea’s Emerson will take his place.

They will be wary of a misfiring but talented Spain team, but can they go all the way?

Star Man – Lorenzo Insigne

Scored a beautiful goal against Belgium in the Quarter Finals and was a ball of energy all over the pitch.

Spain Preview

World Ranking: 6

Best Historical Finish at the Euros: Winners, 1964/2008/2012

Reasons to be cheerful:

     Are finding a way to win games when not at their best

     Their 12 goals equals the Spanish record at Euros

Reasons to be fearful:

     Pablo Sarabia could miss out after suffering injury against Swiss

     Misfiring attack could struggle against Italy stronghold

In contrast to Spanish teams of a decade or so ago, this group of players are not quite as good as putting the ball in the back of the net, despite what their total of 12 goals might tell you.

10 of those goals came in two of their five games, while in their other three they’ve struggled to see off their opponents. Both Croatia and Switzerland took them to extra time and beyond recently.

There are still doubts as to whether Alvaro Morata is good enough to lead this team to Euro success, having scored twice but also missed a hatful of chances in front of goal.

They will need to be much more efficient in front of goal to get past this toughened Italian defence. 

Star Man – Alvaro Morata

For a guy who has struggled to find the net this tournament, he took his goal sensationally well in extra time against Croatia. Can he fire them on again?

ITALY vs SPAIN
Winning Prediction

     Spain should edge possession

     Italy won’t give away too many chances

     Game could be settled by a single goal

As the tournament has progressed, we’ve seen teams sit back a little deeper, conceding fewer chances and scoring fewer goals as a result. 

In knockout football, where there is so much at stake, this is to be expected and on the whole will suit the Italians here.

They have shown throughout the tournament that they have what it takes to keep things tight at the back, and then rocket forward to great effect.

Spain have goals in them too, but they must be far more efficient with their chances if they’re to win.

Italy to win 1-0

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