Italy vs Norway, FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers, Today Match Prediction

Italy vs Norway Match Prediction & Analysis

In the final showdown of Group I, Norway travel to the iconic San Siro to face four-time world champions Italy, with kickoff set for 1:15 AM IST on November 17. While the result won’t affect the group standings, both sides have plenty of personal motivation: Norway are chasing a flawless campaign, while the Azzurri will be eager to avenge their defeat in the reverse fixture. 

Current Standings: Norway sit comfortably atop Group I with 21 points, while Italy trail three points behind in second place. 

Head-to-head Record: Italy hold the slight upper hand in the rivalry, winning five of their meetings compared to Norway’s three, with two ending on level terms. 

TEAMS PREVIEW

Italy Preview

The Azzurri come into this clash after being pushed far harder than expected by Moldova in midweek, needing an 88th-minute strike from Gianluca Mancini and a stoppage-time goal from Pio Esposito to seal a 2–0 win. While the result didn’t affect the standings, it did raise concerns about their attacking sharpness. 

Still, under Gattuso, Italy have now won five straight since he took over from Spalletti in June. And with Gattuso not involved in the earlier loss to Norway, he’ll be especially fired up to set the record straight in this final group fixture.

Stats that matter

1. The Azzurri’s head into the fixture on the back of six wins.
2. Italy have managed to win their last three home games by a margin of 2+ goals.
3. Mateo Retegui has been the MVP of the qualifiers with five goals and four assists to his name. 

Team News 

With the playoffs looming, Gattuso is unlikely to risk anyone walking the suspension tightrope. That could see Sandro Tonali sit out the final group game, while injuries rule out Moise Kean and Niccolò Cambiaghi,

Italy Probable Starting Lineup -  Donnarumma (GK); Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Nico Barella, Locatelli, Cristante; Politano, Retegui, Raspadori. 

Norway Preview

After 28 long years, Norway are back on the World Cup stage, powered by a sensational qualifying run that saw them score 33 goals and concede just four—a towering +21 goal difference. One more strike would even give them the best UEFA qualifying tally of the century. 

Along the way, Norway have produced several standout moments, none bigger than the 11–1 demolition of Moldova—powered by five goals each from Erling Haaland and Thelo Aasgaard—and their commanding 3–0 triumph over Italy. Despite their dominance, there remains a tiny twist heading into the final match: Italy could technically steal top spot with a nine-goal win and a clean sheet. But barring a meltdown of epic proportions, Norway looks firmly in control of their destiny.

Stats that matter 

1. Norway are unbeaten in their last 10 matches (9W, 1D) including friendlies.
2. In the last three matches in all competitions, Norway have won by 3+ goals.
3. Erling Haaland has top scored for the Norwegians in the campaign with 3+ goals. 

Team News 

Norway will be missing captain Martin Odegaard, sidelined with a knee injury. On the brighter side, Solbakken welcomes back Genoa defender Leo Østigård, who returns after sitting out last month’s camp with a broken rib.

Norway Probable Starting Lineup - Nyland (GK); Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Bjorkan; Bobb, Berg, Berge, Nusa; Sorloth, Haaland. 

ITALY vs NORWAY
Winning Prediction

This one has all the ingredients for a free-flowing contest, with neither side under pressure. Still, with the international break wrapping up, the big stars may avoid going full throttle. From a neutral lens, San Siro is never an easy place to visit—Italy have won all three home games in the campaign by a combined 10–0. Yet with Haaland leading the line and plenty of firepower around him, Norway won’t be easy to contain, especially if the game opens up. 

We predict a draw (2-2)

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