Morocco vs Spain, Olympics Football 2024, Today Match Prediction

Morocco vs Spain Match Prediction & Analysis

Morocco did it again! In just two years, the Atlas Lions have made it back to the last four of a major competition. The senior team accomplished the unthinkable by reaching the FIFA World Cup semi-finals in 2024, while the U23 team, with a couple of names from the World Cup squad, achieved the same in the Paris Olympics in 2024.

The Atlas Lions thumped the United States 4-0 on their way to the semis, with goals from Hakimi, Rahimi, Akhomach, and Maouhoub. The victory secured their first appearance in the competition's semifinals, allowing them to better their previous best achieved in the 1972 Olympics in Munich, where they were eliminated in the quarterfinals. 

Meanwhile, the opponents for Sunday, Spain, will be making their 2nd consecutive appearance in the final four after defeating Japan 3-0 in the quarterfinals. Fermin Lopez, with a brace, and Abel Ruiz were the goal scorers for La Roja in the quarter final clash. 

TEAMS PREVIEW

Morocco Preview

The Atlas Lions have played four games, winning three. But the most overwhelming victory of the lot came on Friday in the quarterfinals against the United States, when they annihilated the North Americans by 4 goals to nil. The North Africans, with a possession of 53%, were so dominant that eight of the fifteen shots were on target, while in return, they had to contend with only one shot on target. In the process, they increased their xG in the tournament from 0.81 to 1.52, while the xG for the match against the USA was 1.80. 

The United States had no answer for Captain Hakimi (1 goal) and Ilias Akhomach (1 goal), who ran up and down the right flanks. The duo has been a major contributor to Morocco's success in the competition. In fact, in the sole game they lost, coach Tarik Sektioui benched Akhomach, making it impossible for Hakimi to go down the sides. 

Aside from these two, the mainstays of this Moroccan team have been Abde Ezzalzouli (1 goal and 1 assist) on the left flank—who assisted Akhomach with a brilliant run from the left flank into the box against the USA—and Oussama Targahalline in central midfield (1 assist, 6 interceptions, and 94% pass accuracy). 

Aside from attacking threats, the Atlas Lions have a strong defensive backline, having conceded only two goals and keeping two clean sheets. However, on Monday, it will be challenged against a Spanish team that has scored three goals against a Japanese team that didn’t concede a single goal in the competition until they met La Roja. 

As far as tactics are concerned, Tarik Sektioui is expected to line up his 11 in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with the set-up changing to  a 4-4-1-1 formation when they go on the defensive. While on the ball, Soufine Rahimi (5 goals) and Bilal El Khannouss (2 assists) will be tasked with taking on the Spanish defence and making the most of their opportunities. 

 Morocco Probable Starting XI- Mohamedi (Goalkeeper); Hakimi, Boukamir, El Azzouzi, El Ouahdi(Forwards); Targhalline, Richardson, Akhomach,Ezzalzouli(Midfielders); Rahimi, El Khannouss (Forwards)

Spain Preview

In a battle of the favourites, Spain defeated Japan 3-0 and advanced to the quarterfinals against Morocco on Monday. It was a typical Spain-Japan match, with Spain having 61% possession overall and 66% in the second half while the Blue Samurai chased the game. That's what Spanish teams do to their opponents: they hold possession of the ball in critical moments of the game. 

Keeping possession is one thing, but making the most of it is another. And it is what they did brilliantly against Japan and what Santi Denia expects from his team on Monday against Morocco. They had 12 shots in total, 9 of which were in the second half, and they scored two goals in the half. All the while, the quick Japanese forwards Koki Saito and Mao Hosoya kept quiet. However, unlike Japan, Morocco possesses firepower on both sides of the flanks and have a full-back of the quality of Hakimi. The match-up between Morocco's right flanks against the duo of Sergio Gomez and Juan Miranda could decide the fate of the game. 

As far as Spain’s attacking prowess is concerned, all eyes will be on Fermin Lopez ( 3 goals and an assist). The central attacking midfielder  scored two goals from outside the box against Japan and finished the 2023–24 season as FC Barcelona's second-top goal scorer. Given his eye for goals, Fermin, together with Abel Ruiz, will be Denia's most valuable weapons in the game against Morocco.  As far as changes are concerned, Denia is expected to field the same 11 that played against Japan in the 4-2-3-1 formation. 

Spain Probable Starting XI - Tenas(Goalkeeper); Pubill, Cubarsi, Garcia, Miranda(Defenders); Barrios, Baena, D. Lopez, F. Lopez, Gomez (Midfielders); Ruiz (Forward) 

MOROCCO vs SPAIN
Winning Prediction

Both teams have played four, with three wins and one loss. However, Spain benched the majority of their first eleven in the game that they lost to Egypt. In terms of numbers, Morocco has scored 10 goals, conceded 2 and kept 2 clean sheets. Meanwhile, Spain has 9 goals, 4 conceded, and a clean sheet. When we compare the stats of the teams, we can see that there is little that separates them. 

The numbers suggest that this will be a close game to call, but the odds on most betting sites favour Spain. According to odds from one such site, Spain is tipped to win at 2.05,while Morocco’s is at 3.50. In terms of goals, an xG of 3.25 is predicted for the match. 

Our Call - This game could well be decided in extra time or penalties, with Spain winning. 

Spain U-23 to Win (1-2)

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