Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion, English Premier League 2024-25, Today Match Prediction

Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion Match Prediction & Analysis

The Magpies take on the Seagulls after an international hiatus with only goal difference separating both sides. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last three Premier League home games against Brighton (W2,D1), having failed to win any of their first four against them without scoring a single goal (D2,L2). Eddie Howe’s men will want to return to winning ways after a stalemate against Everton. Challenging encounters against London sides’ Chelsea and Arsenal are soon to follow, and Howe will not want to look beyond securing a Saturday win. 

Last time out, Fabian Hürzler and his striped men marked their win on the south coast with a statement. The Seagulls have made an impressive start to the season, just 2 points shy of a Champions League spot. Brighton have lost just 2 of their previous 14 meetings with Newcastle (W5, D7), though both defeats have come across their last 3 visits to St.James’ Park. Surely the German manager will take note of that and turn the tide. 

Head-to-Head Record : Both teams have played each other 19 times in all competitions. Newcastle have won 5 of those affairs. Brighton picked up 7 wins, while 3 ended in stalemates. 

Current Standings : The Magpies sit in 7th position with 12 points. While their southern foes sit one position above in 6th, with only goal difference separating both teams. 

TEAMS PREVIEW

Newcastle United Preview

Although Newcastle have lost just 1 of their 8 Premier League games (W4, D3), they are winless in their last 3 (D2, L1). It was a bitter return to Goodison Park for Anthony Gordon who had a chance to silence the crowd but instead squandered a penalty. Howe, who was one of the leading candidates for the England job, courtesy to his controlled approach and astute mindset, has a point to prove, if he is to make a return to European football. 

Newcastle missed out on European football this season, since Man United won the FA cup. The Magpies are missing out on their talisman Isak who more often than not is the difference maker. Saturday’s win will take Newcastle straight into Champions League territory if Villa and Chelsea don’t capitalise on their games. 

Tight at the back

Although Newcastle have the potency to go forward, it is the backline that defined the team so far. United have conceded the fewest goals after Liverpool, Arsenal and Forest. In terms of going forward, only Nottingham Forest (4) have had fewer shots than Newcastle following a high turnover in the Premier League this season (5). Conversely, the Magpies have also faced the most efforts in the competition this term (18). 

Key Players

Despite his lack of conversion against his previous club, Anthony Gordon remains United’s biggest threat going forward. Gordon has also made the most amount of sprints by any player this season in the Premier League. Wanted by Liverpool, the Liverpudlian has the pace and prowess to directly take on defenders and create chances out of nothing. The link up play between him and Bruno Guimaräes has worked wonders. But, the Brasilian will want to play a slightly conservative style of football, after drawing the most number of cards this season (6), for the club to leave a mark on the league this season. 

Stats That Matter 

Newcastle are ranked 12th in ball possession with 47.7% averaging 11.6 shots per game. The Magpies score an average of 1.14 goals per match with a shooting accuracy of 33%. Harvey Barnes is the top scorer with 3 goals. Anthony Gordon has also scored 2 goals this season. The team has an average of 4.4 saves per game, the fifth best in the season. They have conceded an average of 1 goal per match.

Injury list - Sven Botman, Lewis Miley, Jamaal Lascelles, Callum Wilson, Alexander Isak, Matt Targett, Martin Dubravka and skipper Kieran Trippier will miss out. 

Newcastle United Probable Starting Lineup -  Pope (GK), Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall (DEF), Joelinton, Guimaräes, Tonali, (MID), Barnes, Gordon, Murphy (FWD).

Brighton & Hove Albion Preview

No team has conceded fewer second half goals than Brighton in the Premier League this season (2), with their latest goal coming in the 70th minute against (vs Nottingham Forest). The team that Brighton shares this commonality with happens to be Newcastle. The Magpies have also shipped a joint-low 2 goals after half time. That should make this encounter interesting, knowing especially that Brighton scored in the 48th, 58th and 66th minute against Spurs, to turn things in their favour. The Amex Stadium is slowly but surely beginning to establish itself as a foremost fortress. 

Not just here to stay 

5 years back Brighton finished 15th and 16th respectively. But ever since, they’ve leapfrogged into unimaginable positions, occupying the top half of the table, even securing a European spot in one of those seasons. The last time they fought to win a game after being 2 goals down was in December 2015 when they beat 10-man Charlton 3-2 in the Championship. The German gaffer has surely surpassed expectations. Brighton have scored 2+ goals in each of their last three Premier League games, last having a longer such run in January 2023 (5). They’ve netted multiple times in 5 of their 7 league games so far this season, having failed to do so in any of their last 13 games in 2023-24.

The difference makers

Kaoru Mitoma who went to university and garnered attention for his degree on dribbling has sparked life into the league. The player has carried the ball further than any other Premier League player this season (1568 metres). 

Meanwhile, only Cole Palmer and Jarred Bowen (8 each) have created more chances following a ball carry than Mitoma. Simultaneously, Danny Welbeck has been contributing by getting himself rightfully involved in 5 goals from 7 Premier League appearances (4 goals, 1 assist), just one fewer than he managed in 29 games last season (5 goals, 1 assist). 

Stats That Matter 

Brighton are ranked 4th in ball possession with 60.3% averaging 15.3 shots per game. The Seagulls score an average of 1.86 goals per match with a shooting accuracy of 30%. Danny Welbeck is the top scorer with 4 goals. Georginio Rutter and Joao Pedro have also scored 2 goals each this season. The team has an average of 2.1 saves per game, the second worst in the season. They have conceded an average of 1.43 goals per match.

Injury list - The treatment room is flooded with important figures. James Milner, Solly March, Joao Pedro, Simon Adingra, Adam Webster, Georginio Rutter, Matt O’Riley and Jan Paul Van Hecke are all set to miss out. 

Brighton Probable Starting Lineup - Verbruggen (GK), Veltman, Julio, Dunk, Estupinãn (DEF), Baleba, Hinshelwood, Minteh, Rutter, Mitoma (MID), Welbeck (FWD).

NEWCASTLE UNITED vs BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
Winning Prediction

Teams that return to Premier League action more often than not seem a little rusty. The team that clears those cobwebs early and effectively will triumph. The crowd at St.James’ park will have a big role to play, but their team will indeed need to convert chances. On the road, the Seagulls have mostly left as tourists with a point and the same could be expected as they travel North of the country. 

We Predict a Draw (1-1)

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