Newcastle United vs Manchester City FC, English Premier League 2024-25, Today Match Prediction

Newcastle United vs Manchester City FC Match Prediction & Analysis

After a forgettable performance at Craven Cottage last weekend, Newcastle United are back at home as they prepare to meet the defending champions, Manchester City, this Saturday. Fans who attend St. James' Park on the weekend may expect a goalfest since the last five meetings between the teams at this venue have generated a total of 5.2 goals per game. 

The hosts will be low on confidence heading into Saturday's match versus City, having lost 1-3 to Fulham, with Harvey Barnes netting the consolation goal. Manchester City, on the other hand, will be relieved following a hard-fought 2-2 draw with Arsenal, thanks to a last-minute injury-time goal by John Stones. 

Current Standings: Thanks to that late goal, Manchester City still occupy the top spot in the points table with 13 points, while Newcastle have descended further following their defeat and are currently placed sixth with 10 points.

Head-to-Head Record: City enjoys a dominant record over Newcastle United in head-to-head stats with a win-loss record of 31-8 with 9 draws. 

TEAMS PREVIEW

Newcastle United Preview

The Magpies have been in trouble several times this season, but they have always found a way to come out on top. Unfortunately for Eddie Howe and his team, luck finally ran out as they failed to save points against Fulham in their most recent match. They will, however, relish the opportunity to face a Manchester City side plagued by injuries to key players. 

For whatever reason, Eddie Howe has chosen that his team will play passive football in the first half. And they got away with it in the games before the Fulham match. However, the Cottagers took advantage of their passiveness, scoring two of their three goals in the first 22 minutes of their most recent encounter. Whether they defend or attack, they must give their all in that phase versus City. 

Stats That Matter

Newcastle United are ranked 12th in ball possession with 45.8% averaging 11.2 shots per game. The Magpies score an average of 1.40 goals per match with a shooting accuracy of 36%. Harvey Barnes is the top scorer with 3 goals in this season. Fabian Schar and Joelinton have scored one goal apiece. The team has an average of 4.8 saves per game, the third best in the season. They have conceded an average of 1.20 goals per match.  

Tactical Approach & Formation

It's guaranteed that City will have complete possession in the forthcoming game. They'll have to spend the majority of the game defending. And City struggles against opponents that use low blocking. Especially now that Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne are absent from the starting 11. So low-block defence with counter-attacks will be the way to go. 

Eddie How usually lines up his 11 in a 4-3-3 shape. However, in the FA Cup match earlier this year, he started with a 5-3-2, but he is more likely to go with a 4-4-2 system, with Harvey Barnes as a wing-back and Isak and Anthony Gordon as forwards. 

Newcastle United Probable Starting Lineup -  N. Pope (GK); F. Schar, L. Hall/Kelly, D. Burn, Trippier (Defenders); Joelinton, Guimaraes, Harvey Barnes,  Longstaff (Midfielders); A. Gordon, A. Isak (Forwards) 

Manchester City FC Preview

The last match against Arsenal turned out to be a real battle for the Citizens, as Pep Guardiola’s side barely managed to hold on to their 46-game unbeaten run at home. More than the outcome, Rodri's injury would have affected Guardiola even more. Rodri appears to have an ACL injury, and if that's the case, he will miss the rest of the season. 

City to miss Rodri?

Since Rodri made his Premier League debut in August 2019, City have lost one-third of their games without him (7 of 21). Three came during the first half of last season. In addition, City’s average points-per-game during the period across all competitions drops from 2.36 to 2.04. Though it's worth noting that City were without Rodri in the first three games this season and they still won comfortably. 

Stats That Matter

Man City are ranked the best in ball possession with 65.6% averaging 19.8 shots per game. The Cityzens score an average of 2.60 goals per match with a shooting accuracy of 36%. Erling Braut Haland has scored 10 goals for the team this season and is the top player. Mateo Kovacic and John Stones have scored one goal each. The team has an average of 2.2 saves per game, the second worst in the season. They have conceded an average of 1 goal per match.

Tactical Approach & Formation

Kevin De Bruyne was not available for the Citizens' last game. However, Pep Guardiola has made it clear that KDB's return is not far off. Still, he remains doubtful for the weekend game. Furthermore, defender Nathan Akke will continue to miss games and is not anticipated to return before the international break. 

Given the unavailability of players due to injuries, City will be forced to make some changes to the 11 that played Arsenal. Mateo Kovacic will take over for Rodri, and Gundogan will start if KDB does not start. Meanwhile, Guardiola is expected to switch the system from 4-3-3 to 3-2-4-1, with Rico Lewis and Kovacic serving as holding midfielders. 

Manchester City Probable Starting Lineup -  Ederson (GK); Gvardiol, Dias, Akanji (Defenders); Kovacic, Lewis, Silva, Grealish/Gundogan, Savinho (Midfielders);  Haaland (Forwards) 

NEWCASTLE UNITED vs MANCHESTER CITY FC
Winning Prediction

This rivalry is all about goals whenever these two sides meet at St. James' Park, and there haven't been many draws. So expect complete mayhem, especially if Eddie Howe decides to return to the formula that worked for his squad last season. 

In terms of goals, the Magpies had an xGA of 3.2 against a City side that was missing Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne for the majority of the game. Furthermore, City has won four of the last five games against the Magpies, with one finishing in a 3-3 tie. We predict an xG of 3/3.5 is expected for this contest. 

Manchester City to win (1-3)

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