Nottingham Forest FC vs Newcastle United, English Premier League 2024-25, Today Match Prediction

Nottingham Forest FC vs Newcastle United Match Prediction & Analysis

A magical sphere has engulfed City Ground. Forest are third in the Premier League - their highest position since 1998 - after winning three on the bounce in the top flight for the first time since 1999. Their opening 10 games mirror Leicester’s 2015-16 start when the Foxes shocked the world and won the Premier League at odds of 5,000-1. Chris Wood is now almost as popular as Cole Palmer, Mohammad Salah, Bukayo Saka, Erling Haaland and equally as dangerous in front of goal. 

It’s difficult to digest that Forest escaped relegation last season by only 4 points. Opta’s expected points model has forest in fifth and suggests they are over-performing their game statistics by 2.23 points. Although they’ve had the fourth-easiest opening 10 fixtures, they now face the fourth-most difficult fixture list for their next 10 outings, beginning with welcoming a strong Newcastle side that beat Arsenal. 

Alexander Isak daggered Arsenal hearts at home last week to give the Magpies a much needed uplift. They sidelined Chelsea before meeting the Gunners and look to have got their campaign back on track. This calendar year, only Erling Haaland (24) and Chelsea’s Cole Palmer (21) have scored more Premier League goals than Isak (17). 

Newcastle United struggled to replicate their commendable form last season due to European commitments. But this time round, especially with victory against Arsenal, surely the men in black and white have started dreaming.

Head-to-Head Record : Both teams have played each other 79 times. Forest won 24 of those while Newcastle have won 37. 18 games ended in a draw. 

Current Standings : The home team are in dreamland, comfortably sitting in third position. Newcastle have amassed 15 points after 10 games and sit in 11th spot.  

TEAMS PREVIEW

Nottingham Forest FC Preview

Forest have won just one of their Premier League games against Newcastle (D3, L8), picking up a 3-1 win at St.James’ park last season with Chris Wood scoring a hat-trick. This is the first time since 1989 that Nottingham Forest are facing Newcastle in a top-flight match while being above them in the standing, when they drew 1-1 at the City Ground (Forest 5th, Newcastle 19th). 

Forest have now won each of their last three Premier League games, last winning four in a row in the top-flight in April/May 1995, a season that saw them finishing third in the table. Nuno’s has built a tight defence. Only Liverpool (6) have conceded fewer goals than Forest (7) in the Premier League this season, with only Brighton managing to score more than once against the Tricky Trees so far (2-2 draw). It’s the fewest goals they’ve conceded after 10 games of a top-flight campaign since their title winning season  of 1977-78 (also 7). 

Wood against all odds

The 32 year old Kiwi International has scored more than half of Forest’s 14 goals this season and has 22 goals in 30 Premier League starts since making his move from Newcastle permanent in June 2023. 19 of those goals have come under Nuno. 

Only City’s Haaland has scored more non-penalty goals than Wood’s 18 since 23 December 2023. Wood also has the fourth best conversion rate (32.8%) in the Premier League since Nuno arrived and is over-performing his expected goals figure (14.04) by almost 5 goals. 

Injury list - Danilo, Ibrahim Sangare, Jota Silva.

Nottingham Forest Probable Starting Lineup -  Sels (GK), Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Moreno (DEF), Yates, Dominguez, Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi (MID), Wood (FWD).

Newcastle United Preview

Against no side have the Magpies played more Premier League games without ever losing than Nottingham Forest (6- W3, D3). Their last top-flight defeat at the City Ground was in May 1987 (W4, D4 since). Newcastle’s 1-0 win over Arsenal last time out ended a five game winless run for the Magpies in the Premier League (D2, L3). 

All four of their league wins this term have been by a single goal - 67% of their victories last term were by a margin of at least 2 goals (12/18). Last season, Newcastle became just the second ever club to have 20 different goalscorers (excluding own goals) in a single Premier League season, along with Manchester United in 2012-13. So far this season, only Crystal Palace (4) have had fewer different scorers than the Magpies (5). 

Isak to the rescue

Isak averages a goal every 133 minutes in the Premier League for Newcastle - only Andrew Cole (one every 121 minutes) has a better average for the Magpies in the Premier League. The Swede has also scored 11 goals in his last 11 appearances at St.James’ Park. 

The Swede has scored 3 goals in two Premier League games against Forest, only netting more against Spurs and West Ham (5 each). He’s looking to score in three or more consecutive Premier League appearances for the fourth time since the start of the season, which would be the most different such runs of any player in that time. 

Injury list - Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, Callum Wilson, Matt Target, Martin Dubravka and Kieran Trippier are all set to miss out. 

Newcastle United Probable Starting Lineup -  Pope (GK), Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall (DEF), Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock, (MID) Isak, Gordon, Joelinton, (FWD).

NOTTINGHAM FOREST FC vs NEWCASTLE UNITED
Winning Prediction

Both teams play calculated, conservative football. The thrill will come in short doses. This is a game of tactics over theatrics. But whoever is to score first should go on to win the game. Since Newcastle have endured plenty of defeats against Forest, that would be expected to continue as Forest find themselves in the form of their life.  

Nottingham Forest to Win (1-0)

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