New Zealand vs United States, Olympics Football 2024, Today Match Prediction

New Zealand vs United States Match Prediction & Analysis

In a Group A clash, New Zealand will face the USA with hopes of progressing to the next round, while their opponents will fight to stay alive in the competition. 

The OlyWhites will enter their match against the USA buoyed by their 2-1 victory over Guinea, secured through goals from captain Matthew Garbett and striker Ben Waine. A win on Saturday would mark only the second time a New Zealand football team has advanced to the Olympic second round, following their achievement at the Tokyo Olympics.

Conversely, the USA will engage in a battle for survival against New Zealand after suffering a 3-0 defeat to the hosts in their opening match. To progress to the next round, the USA will likely need to overcome the OlyWhites on Saturday and defeat Guinea in their final group game.

TEAMS PREVIEW

New Zealand Preview

Darren Bazeley would understand that his team likely has only one chance to secure a spot in the next round, with France looming as a formidable opponent in the final group match. Despite Wednesday's victory, their seventh in the past eight games, they will enter the encounter against the United States as underdogs, just as they did against Guinea.

Although outplayed in possession by Guinea, the match was decided by the brilliance of goalkeeper Alex Paulsen. He made seven saves and was the standout performer. Matthew Garbett and Ben Waine also impressed, with both scoring. Waine's pace will likely trouble the US defense, and Brazeley will rely on quick counterattacks. While Brazeley is unlikely to make wholesale changes to the starting eleven, he may consider altering the formation to counter the US threat on the flanks. 

New Zealand  Probable Starting XI - Paulsen (Goalkeeper); Bindon, Surman, Boxall, Sutton(Defenders); Bell, Garbett, Singh (Midfielders);  Herdman, Waine, Bayliss ( Forwards) 

United States Preview

In some ways, the Americans were unfortunate not to score against France, squandering two excellent chances. However, their expected goals (xG) of 0.10 was the sixth-worst after the first round, marginally better than New Zealand's 0.18. While the difference is small, France's attack proved more efficient than Guinea's against New Zealand. Ultimately, finishing will likely determine the outcome on Saturday.

Despite the defeat, some American players showed promise. Kevin Pardes and Nathan Harriel caused problems for the French defense on the left flank. However, the team lacked creativity through the center and left, relying primarily on the right side. Unlike France, New Zealand is unlikely to pose a significant attacking threat and will probably defend deep. 

This could allow left-back Aaron Tolkin to push forward and combine with Paxten Aaronson. Coach Marko Mitrovic hopes this strategy will work; otherwise, elimination looms. In terms of changes, Jack McGlynn might start over Mihailovic after creating more chances in 14 minutes than Mihailovic produced in the entire game. 

USA Probable Starting XI - Schulte; Harriel, Zimmerman, Robinson, Tolkin; Busio, Tessmann, Mihailovic; Paredes, McGuire, Aaronson

NEW ZEALAND vs UNITED STATES
Winning Prediction

Given New Zealand's performance against Guinea, which included the worst expected goals conceded (xGA) in the competition, they might have been in a worse position than the USA against France. Nevertheless, a win is a win, and the Oly Whites face little pressure, as a draw would likely suffice unless Guinea upsets France.

For the USA, however, victory is imperative, and they must find a way to score goals. Interestingly, three of their last four matches had an expected goals (xG) total of 3.5, but they've been on the losing side. Despite winning only one of their last eight games, most top betting services favor the United States.

While their first-game result was disappointing, the United States has shown enough quality to suggest they can win this Group A match. Therefore, we're backing them to prevail.

USA U-23 to Win (1-3)

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