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Romania vs Netherlands, UEFA Euro 2024, Today Match Prediction

Allianz Arena, Munich, Bavaria

Netherlands Aim to Break Knock-Out Curse Against Romania's Fan-Fueled Charge

  • Netherlands average possession (52%) is lower than defensive teams like Italy.
  • The average goals per game in the head to head matches between Romania & Netherlands is 2.44.
  • Romania and Netherlands have met in 9 matches. Romania won 1, Netherlands won 7, and 1 ended in a draw.

Netherlands to Win (1-2)

Tournament: UEFA Euro 2024 | Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich, Bavaria

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When the groups were drawn for Euro 2024, France and the Netherlands were expected to finish first and second in Group D, which also included Austria and Poland. However, things didn't go according to plan for the Dutch, who finished third in the group after conceding a 2-3 defeat to Austria in their final game. This result might prove to be a fortunate turn of events, as they have successfully avoided the tougher side of the draw for the finals and now find themselves in a more favorable position. Here, England appears to be their biggest threat on paper.

Romania, on the other hand, advanced into the last-16 after topping Group E, which included Belgium, Slovakia, and Ukraine. Similar to the Dutch, their fate was sealed during the final group game. They drew a highly contested match against Slovakia thanks to a penalty goal from Razvan Marin in the 37th minute. In the process, the Tricolorii ended their 24-year exile from the knockout stages of a major tournament, their last appearance being Euro 2000. 

Romania Preview

Romania did win Group E, but if they had lost that match versus Slovakia, they would have finished fourth in the group and would have been eliminated from the Euros. Instead, they withstood the pressure of an early goal, the weather, and the high intensity press of Slovakians to reach the knockout stage after 24 years. Coming out of a group in a highly challenging environment, where all the teams shared equal points would have helped them prepare mentally for the tougher challenges ahead. 

From a tactical point of view, Iordanescu is expected to field a 4-1-4-1 combination, with the emphasis largely on a well-structured defence. And the numbers in the tournament suggest that they have been good at defending their lines. Having faced 46 shots, the 2nd most after Georgia (71) from the group stages, the Tricolorii has only conceded 3 goals – two in one match, where they looked flabbergasted by the Belgians. However, they might as well want to tweak their tactics against the Dutch a bit, given how vulnerable the Dutch have looked against a high-intensity press in that game against Austria. The Dutch conceded 3 goals in the game. 

If it comes to scoring goals, Razvan Marin with two goals and Dennis Man with two assists will be the key. As far as changes are concerned, Nicusor Bancu, who is serving a one-match suspension, will likely be replaced by the right-back Vasile Morgos or Dein Sorescu, as they don't have a natural left-back in the squad. 

Romania Probable Starting XI: Nita (Goalkeeper); Raitu, Dragusin, Burca, Sorescu (Defenders); M. Marin, Razvan Marin, Stanciu, Mihaila, Dennis Man (Midfielders); Dragus (Striker) 

Netherlands Preview

Often known for their quick, fluid and attacking style of play, the Dutch have been dull and uninspiring so far in the tournament. They have scored the same number of goals as their counterparts (known for their defensive style) leading up to the game on Tuesday. 

The Dutch have averaged around 52% possession so far, which is worse than what a defensive Italy has managed in the tournament. Not having enough possession meant, they lacked the control to dictate the game. It meant the opposition could put pressure on their defence like Austria did in their final group match. Meanwhile, they have scored only 4 goals (2 in 1 game) with an average of 13.3 shots per game, with very few on target.

Despite putting on an under-par performance in the group stages, the Dutch will fancy their chances of beating the 47th-ranked team in the world. However, they were in a similar situation three years ago in Euro 2020, unfortunately got knocked out by a low-ranked Czech with a score of 2-0. If they are to avoid that situation, the midfield has to put up a better performance than they did against Austria. As that game was lost in the midfield, frustrated Ronald Koeman had to withdraw Joey Veerman after 35 minutes of play. 

Given how the last game had gone, expect Koeman to make some changes while restoring back to 4-2-3-1, with Xavi Simmons back into the 11 and Reijnders going back to his preferred deep role in the midfield. Probably Leverkusen’s Frimpong will come in as well. 

Netherlands Probable Starting XI: Verbruggen (Goalkeeper); Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Ake (Defenders); Reijnders, Schouten, Simmons, Frimpong (Midfielders) ; Depay, Gakpo (Forwards) 

NED Over/Under Betting Tips

Netherlands ball possession under 59.5% 1.99

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Netherlands are averaging 52% ball possession in this tournament, but they have struggled a bit in their last two group games to hold onto the ball. We are expecting an even contest where both teams will likely hold onto the ball for significant stretches, and we predict Netherlands' ball possession to be under 59.5%.

Over/Under Goals Total Tips

Total Goals under 2.5 2.06

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It has been a tough going for all the teams in the round of 16, and goals have been hard to come by. Both teams are averaging 1.33 goals per game in the tournament so far, and overall in head-to-head matches, the average goals per game between both teams is 2.33. Given how defensive teams have been in this round, we predict the total goals to be under 2.5.

The last time these two teams met in a European tournament, the Netherlands emerged victorious with a 2-0 score in Euro 2008. Meanwhile, Romania have only won once in their last 14 games against the Dutch, having drawn 3 and lost 10, while conceding 29 and scoring just 3. The odds may not be against them, but given the support they had from their fans and how they played in the tournament so far, the Tricolorii will fancy their chances against the Netherlands on Tuesday at the Allianz Arena. 

For the Dutch, however, it will all be about reining in control of their midfield and staying patient throughout the game. They will know that as the game progresses further, the quality of each team’s bench strength will become more apparent. But Ronald Koeman’s side will also be mindful of their record in the last three Euro knockouts: 3 defeats in 3 knockout matches.  Regardless of what has been mentioned above, we fancy a Dutch win in the regular time in what is expected to be a match filled with drama and excitement. 

Netherlands to Win (1-2)


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Author: Vishnu Reddy