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CLAIM NOWSouth Coast Derby: Who Will Take the Edge?
Draw (1-1)
Tournament: English Premier League 2024-25 | Venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
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The Premier League moves to the South Coast, with Southampton hosting Nottingham Forest at St. Mary's Stadium. It may be early in the season, but the encounter appears to be a vital meeting for both teams, who may find themselves fighting to avoid relegation later in the season.
The Saints come into the game off a disappointing away loss to Newcastle United (1-0), who lost a man in the 28th minute. Nottingham, on the other hand, was unable to maintain an early goal advantage and ended up sharing points at home with Bournemouth after conceding the equaliser in an unfortunate fashion minute away from the conclusion.
At present, Southampton are sitting in the 16th position in the points table, while Nottingham is placed 11th. In the head-to-head battle, Nottingham Forest holds the upper hand with seven wins to Southampton's two wins in 12 games.
Making a comeback to the top division after a gap of one season, the Saints couldn't have asked for a better opportunity to start off their campaign on a winning note than having a man down early in the first half. Instead, they handed over the advantage in the first place as the keeper, McCarthy, misplaced a pass to the Newcastle player and conceded the winner.
Despite the error in judgement, there were several positives. Most significantly, they created numerous opportunities and were comfortable playing from the back. Overall, they created three big chances and had a xG of 1.77.
In terms of tactics, Russell Martin is expected to line up his starting 11 in a 3-5-2 shape, with full-back Yukinari Sugawara using the width of the flanks to get the ball into the box and Kyle Walker-Peters acting as an inverted full-back to provide support to the midfield.
The Saints will miss the services of Gavin Bazunu, Adam Lallana, and Kamaldeen Sulemana.
Southampton Starting Lineup - McCarthy (Goalkeeper); Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Stephens (Defenders); Sugawara, Downes, Smallbone, Alcaraz, Walker-Peters (Midfielders); Armstrong, Brereton Diaz
Nottingham Forest's first game of the season got off to the worst possible start as midfielder Danilo suffered an injury in the first 10 minutes and had to be replaced. He was eventually diagnosed with a broken ankle. Nonetheless, attacker Chris Wood scored early on a rebound chance. Unfortunately, they were unable to maintain their lead until the very end.
For a team that does not dominate possession, Forrest had a high percentage of possession (53%), and they won the majority of their duels (55%).
Nuno Santo has a lot of firepower on the flanks, and it will be one of the areas through which he will try to exploit Southampton with his 4-2-3-1 formation. Given his counter-attacking approach, he expects his wingers to catch Kyle Walker or Sugawara out of position.
Ryan Yates will start in place of Danilo, while Harry Toffolo will replace Ola Aina. Furthermore, after Elanga's poor performance in the first game, Santo may consider replacing him with someone like Jota Silva.
Nottingham Forest Starting Lineup - Selsm (Goalkeeper); Williams, Boly, Murillo, Toffolo (Defenders); Sangaré, Yates, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, Jota Silva (Midfielders); Wood (Forward)
The clash between the two teams will be about contrasting styles of football. The Saints, led by Russell Martin, believe in an attacking brand of football, but doing so poses a risk of counterattacks, which is exactly Nottingham’s MO.
They will look to hurt the teams on the counter while sitting back and holding their defensive shape. When it comes to the recent head-to-head record between the teams, Nottingham have won their last two games by a margin of 4-3 and 1-0.
Nottingham has a strong defensive unit, while Southampton is not clinical in their finish. That means, more or less, we expect the match to end in a draw.
Draw (1-1)
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