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Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs Melbourne Victory FC, A-League Men 2025-26, Today Match Prediction

CommBank Stadium, Parramatta

Can the Wanderers topple Melbourne?

  • Western Sydney Wanderers rank 5th in the xG table, underperforming by 16.1 expected points this season.
  • Sydney have won five of six home meetings with Victory between 2020 and 2025.
  • Melbourne Victory rank 3rd in the xG table.

Melbourne Victory FC to win (2-0)

Tournament: A-League Men 2025-26 | Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta

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Two sides separated by every conceivable metric meet on ANZAC Day at CommBank Stadium, where the Wanderers seek a final home performance of dignity and Victory target a result that could yet determine where they host their Elimination Final next weekend. The visitors carry far more to play for and arrive in considerably better form.

Current League Standings:

Melbourne Victory sit sixth in the A-League with 37 points from 25 games, whilst Western Sydney Wanderers prop up the table in 12th place on just 21 points.

Head-To-Head Stats:

Across all historical meetings between the two sides, Melbourne Victory hold the upper hand with 16 wins, compared to 12 for Western Sydney Wanderers, with six draws recorded between them. 

Western Sydney Wanderers FC Preview

Western Sydney Wanderers trudge into Saturday's ANZAC Day clash sitting at the bottom of the A-League table. The club dismissed Alen Stajcic in January after a season-and-a-half at the helm, yet results have not improved under Gary van Egmond, who now prepares to step aside at the end of the season.

Wanderers have the competition's poorest goal difference at -14, and they have only conceded fewer goals than one other team, Wellington Phoenix. Across 25 league outings, they have managed just 27 goals, an average of 1.08 per game, while shipping 41 at the other end, conceding at a rate of 1.64 per game. Their attacking output is plainly insufficient, and their defensive frailties compound those struggles.

Form has been equally alarming. In their last five games across all competitions, the Wanderers scored just five goals while conceding 13. They drew 2-2 with Brisbane Roar, then fell 2-4 to Adelaide United, 0-3 to Melbourne City, 0-2 to Sydney FC, and most recently lost 2-1 away to Wellington Phoenix.

For this game, Jacob Farrell remains unavailable through injury. Steven Ugarkovic also drops out of the Round 26 squad.  

Western Sydney Wanderers FC (4-2-3-1): Jordan Holmes; Jarrod Carluccio, Nate Barrie, Anthony Pantazopoulos, Alex Gersbach; Josh Brillante, Angus Thurgate; Jai Rose, Bozhidar Kraev, Ryan Fraser; Brandon Borrello 

Melbourne Victory FC Preview

Melbourne Victory arrive at CommBank Stadium with far greater purpose and motivation, chasing a home Elimination Final berth as the regular season concludes. Arthur Diles' side enter the final round knowing that three points in New South Wales represents their strongest chance of clinching a home Elimination Final.

Across 25 league fixtures, Victory have scored 42 goals at a rate of 1.68 per game, while conceding 33 at 1.32 per game. Their last five results across competitions read: W 4-1 vs Macarthur FC, W 4-1 vs Central Coast Mariners, L 0-1 vs Wellington Phoenix, D 2-2 vs Auckland FC, and D 2-2 vs Newcastle Jets; 12 goals scored and just 7 conceded across that run.

Juan Mata is the notable addition to the Round 26 squad, returning from the fractured elbow that kept him sidelined during the previous two weeks. Joshua Inserra does not feature in the named squad. 

Melbourne Victory (4-2-3-1): Jack Warshawsky; Franco Lino, Nishan Velupillay, Keegan Jelacic, Jason Davidson; Jordi Valadon, Denis Genreau; Charles Nduka, Juan Mata, Clerismario Santos Rodrigues; Nikolaos Vergos 

The Wanderers have lost their last four matches to cement their place at the bottom of the ladder, and a Victory side chasing a home final shows too much quality to slip up here. 

Melbourne Victory FC to win (2-0)

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Author: Vishnu Reddy