Bayer Leverkusen vs Liverpool FC, UEFA Champions League 2025-26, Today Match Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen vs Liverpool FC Match Prediction & Analysis

Wednesday's first leg at the BayArena pits a Leverkusen side burdened by a depleted squad and inconsistent domestic form against an Arsenal outfit that have looked imperious throughout Europe this season. Something has to give, and with Hjulmand's men scoring just once across their last three matches, the early pressure falls firmly on the hosts. 

Alejandro Grimaldo carries Leverkusen's greatest creative threat; four UCL goals and two assists from ten appearances, with a competition-high FotMob rating of 8.08. For Arsenal, Gabriel Martinelli offers the greater goal threat, registering six Champions League goals from just seven matches, significantly outpacing his 4.01 xG in the process.

Head-to-Head Stats: Arsenal and Leverkusen have met twice competitively, both in 2001/02m a 1-1 BayArena draw, then a 4-1 Arsenal win at Highbury. Arsenal remain unbeaten.

TEAMS PREVIEW

Bayer Leverkusen Preview

Bayer Leverkusen arrive at this tie in a position nobody expected when the season began. Kasper Hjulmand's side lost each of their first three games of 2026, but have since won seven of their last eleven in all competitions. 

Across all ten Champions League games this season, eight league phase fixtures plus the Olympiacos playoff, Leverkusen have scored 15 goals and conceded 12, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per game. Those numbers, though, mask a dramatic split: a 2–7 home humiliation by PSG skews the conceded tally heavily, and their subsequent run shows a very different defensive picture.

In their last five games across all competitions, Leverkusen scored five goals, three against Freiburg, one against Hamburg, and one against Mainz, and conceded five, an indication of a team still prone to vulnerability. Their league phase return of three wins, three draws, and two losses left them 16th, forcing a two-legged playoff against Olympiacos, which they cleared 2-0 on aggregate with both goals from Patrik Schick.

Schick has four UCL goals this term and 13 in all competitions, while Alejandro Grimaldo leads the continent with five direct free-kick goals. Hjulmand goes into Tuesday's first leg without his first-choice goalkeeper. 

Flekken is sidelined with a knee injury until late March, forcing Blaswich to deputise, while Badé, Tella, Ben Seghir, and Arthur are also unavailable. It is a threadbare squad facing the best side in the competition. 

Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1): Janis Blaswich - Jarell Quansah, Robert Andrich, Edmond Tapsoba - Lucas Vázquez, Exequiel Palacios, Aleix García, Alejandro Grimaldo - Jonas Hofmann, Ibrahim Maza - Patrik Schick.

Liverpool FC Preview

Arsenal travel to Leverkusen as the most formidable side in this year's competition, and, frankly, it is not particularly close. Across their eight Champions League league phase matches this season, they scored 23 goals and conceded just four, an average of 2.88 scored and 0.5 conceded per game, figures that no other side in the competition comes near.

Their run through the league phase was nothing short of dominant. They won all four of their opening European matches without conceding once, Arsenal, before dispatching Bayern Munich 3-1 at the Emirates in November, thumping Club Brugge 3-0 away in December, beating Inter Milan 3-1 in January, and closing out the phase with a 4-1 rout of Kaiart.

Arsenal finished the league phase with five clean sheets from eight games, becoming the first team in the competition's history to post a perfect 100% record across all eight fixtures.

Their last five games across all competitions produced 11 goals scored and just five conceded, a run including a 4-1 demolition of Tottenham and a 2-1 victory over Chelsea, though the 2-2 draw at Wolves late in the stretch showed the odd crack still exists.

Mikel Arteta faces a notable injury list heading into Tuesday's first leg. Martin Ødegaard remains sidelined with a knee problem until late March, while Mikel Merino, so influential as a makeshift striker earlier in the campaign, is out until late May with a foot injury. 

Leandro Trossard and Ben White are both listed as doubtful. That said, Arsenal's squad depth has absorbed absences all season without blinking, and there is little evidence that Leverkusen can exploit any of it.

Arsenal (4-1-2-3): Kepa Arrizabalaga - Jurriën Timber, Cristhian Mosquera, Riccardo Calafiori, Myles Lewis-Skelly - Christian Nørgaard - Kai Havertz, Eberechi Eze - Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyökeres, Gabriel Martinelli.

BAYER LEVERKUSEN vs LIVERPOOL FC
Winning Prediction

Arsenal's defensive record and Leverkusen's chronic attacking drought make a low-scoring away win the most logical outcome. Arteta's side have the quality to nick a crucial first-leg advantage on the road.  

Arsenal to win (2-0)

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