Paraguay vs Mali, Olympics Football 2024, Today Match Prediction

Paraguay vs Mali Match Prediction & Analysis

In a virtual knockout for a place in the quarterfinals, Paraguay will take on Mali at Parc des Princes stadium in Paris on July 31, at 12:30 a.m. IST. Mali requires a win to qualify for the next round, while Paraguay needs just a draw to progress, provided Japan defeats Israel in the other group game. Teams head into the contest on the back of contrasting results, as Paraguay won their last match against Israel (4-2) while Mali lost theirs against Japan (1-0). 

Paraguay, with one win and a loss, is currently second in the points table, while Mali is third and is yet to register a win in the competition. However, Mali has the advantage of goal difference over Paraguay, and if they win on Wednesday, they will progress via goal difference. 

TEAMS PREVIEW

Paraguay Preview

Two goals in six minutes were all it took for Paraguay to breathe new life into their Olympic campaign, which was on the verge of elimination after a 2-2 deadlock against Israel. In the end, goals from Fabian Balbuena and Marcelo Fernandez helped them turn the match around in the last minutes of injury time, lifting them from last place in the group to second.

It was a crazy game that had 38 shots from Paraguay with 10 on target. Marcelo Fernandez alone had a shy at the goalpost seven times and succeeded on hitting the target three times. Despite not scoring, La Albirroja's captain Diego Gonez was the match's MVP, assisting his teammates twice and providing them with nine vital passes. 

The irony was that Paraguay only had roughly 40% possession throughout the game. Nonetheless, they won 62% of their duels and had twice as many interceptions and tackles in the game without cards. Shoutout to the defenders; it ultimately made a significant difference. 

Carlos Jara expects more of the same on Tuesday, but with more control because a draw will allow them to advance. However, he does have injury concerns, as winger Enso Gonzalez is slated to miss out due to an ACL injury sustained during the Israel encounter.  Meanwhile, midfielder Wilder Viera will be back in contention to start after missing the Israel game due to the red card suspension. 

Paraguay  Probable Playing XI - R.Fernandez( Goalkeeper); Rivas, De Jesus, Falbuena, Nunez (Defenders); Caballero, M.Gomez, D.Gomez, Perez(Midfielders); Enciso, M.Fernandez (Forwards) 

Mali Preview

Badro Diallo would have been scratching his head, thinking about how his team squandered a good opportunity to take points out of the game against Japan, and he would have regretted going out on Tuesday night. In both encounters, they had the best numbers in the game, but they did not achieve their goals. But now they need a win for themselves and will be rooting for the Japanese team at the same time. 

In their second match against the Blue Samurai, they wasted a golden opportunity to tie the score when Cheickna Doumbia missed a penalty in the final minutes. Without an own goal against Ukraine and a penalty against Japan, Mali would have been comfortably second in the points table. 

Unfortunately, it was not to be. Nonetheless, Mali has been excellent in defence, conceding no more than one goal in each of their previous six games. To advance to the quarterfinals, they must score goals and make the most out of the possession they enjoyed in the tournament.  Given their performance versus Japan, no changes are expected. Diallo will once again play in a 4-3-3 formation.

Mali Probable Starting XI - L.Diarra (Goalkeeper); Doucoure, Cisse, Tounkara, Diomande (Defenders); Diakite, Traore, Jiddou (Midfielders); T.Diarra, Doumbia, B.Diarra (Forwards) 

PARAGUAY vs MALI
Winning Prediction

Mali desperately needs to win this match. So far in the tournament, they have been strong defensively and offensively, but they have yet to score a goal. By opening out to try to score those goals, the defence risks making mistakes and leaving itself vulnerable to Paraguay's counter-attacks. It will be a traditional attacking vs. counter-attacking match. So Mali's best chance of winning is to score early and then defend.

However, this Paraguay team is not known for its defence. After the first round of matches they have already conceded 7 and 22 in their last  8 games.  That will give Mali a lot of optimism. Given these statistics, it's reasonable to conclude that this will not be a goalless tie and that there will be lots of goals scored. According to prominent betting services, the xG for this match is between 2.5/3, with odds of Mali winning at 2.63 and losing at 2.50. Clearly, this will be a close game, but given Paraguay's attacking strength, we have decided to back them.

Paraguay U-23 to win (2-1)

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