Southampton FC vs Liverpool FC, English Premier League 2024-25, Today Match Prediction

Southampton FC vs Liverpool FC Match Prediction & Analysis

The two ends of the table take each other on at St.Mary’s on Sunday. The Saints were generous enough before the International break to hand Wolves their first win of the season. That was a relegation battle classed as a must win. The Saints will be sorry for taking nothing from that game. Now, the biggest test looms large ahead of them. Fortunately the owners are still supportive of Martin - because truth being told, they are a well-coached side, it’s just that they are unable to find the back of the net. 

Martin’s objective this season will be survival if he is to stay on. But Liverpool will only make matters hard and they have to be prepared. If it was any other club a sack would’ve been enforced but Rasmus Ankersen, co-founder and chief executive of Sport Republic, owner of Southampton has previously overseen Brentford as co-director of football and knows that patience is what helps build a sustainable model and successful team. 

Liverpool somewhat look in control of the Premier League title. But any suggestion of that is quickly rejected by any member of the squad. Slot has now won 9 Premier League games out of 11 and 15 from 17 overall. The Dutchman has credited his players’ fitness for this run of form. The other team that had a 5 point advantage at this stage of the season were Man City in 2011-12. They were eventual winners of the title. 

The Reds have experienced players to deal with this situation by obviously not getting too ahead of themselves. After Liverpool beat Aston Villa, Opta’s League Prediction model put the Reds’ chances of finishing top of the Premier League at 59.3%. This is a drastic jump from having been given a 5.1% projection before the season started. It is the first time this season, City are not regarded as favourites. There is still a long way to go in the title race, and maybe only March will give us a better picture of who stands where. 

Head-to-Head Record : Both teams have played each other 96 times. Southampton have won 24, Liverpool have won 50, with 20 games ending in a draw. 

Current Standings : Southampton sit at the foot of the table on 20th with 4 points. Liverpool are league leaders, 5 clear of City, with 28 points from 11 games. 

TEAMS PREVIEW

Southampton FC Preview

Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021. This will be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. League leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011. 

Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day top of the table (W2 D5), and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Manchester City in May 2018. Only Manchester City are averaging more passes/game (642) and a higher passing accuracy (91%) than Southampton (543, 89%) in the Premier League this season. However, just 22% of the Saints’ passes have ended in the final 1/3, a league-low ratio. Southampton have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). 

Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated. Southampton are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (7), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Saints (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

Stats That Matter - Southampton are ranked 4th in ball possession with 56.9% averaging 10.3 shots per game. The Saints score an average of 0.64 goals per match with a shooting accuracy of 30%. Cameron Archer is the top scorer with 2 goals. The team has an average of 3.9 saves per game, the 4th best in the season. They have conceded an average of 1.91 goals per match.

Injury list - Gavin Bazunu, Ross Stewart, Will Smallbone and Ryan Fraser will all miss out. 

Southampton Probable Starting Lineup -  Ramsdale (GK), Walker-Peters, Hardwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Stephens, Manning (DEF), Armstrong, Aribo, Lallana, Tachikawa, Fernandes (MID), Archer (FWD).

Liverpool FC Preview

Liverpool’s last Premier League game against Southampton was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023, they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined. Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Arne Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (7 goals, 4 assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton. 

Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – 8 goals, 6 assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

Stats That Matter - Liverpool are ranked 3rd in ball possession with 57.8% averaging 14.1 shots per game. The Reds score an average of 1.91 goals per match with a shooting accuracy of 43%. Mohamed Salah is the top scorer with 8 goals. Luis Diaz has also scored 5 goals this season. The team has an average of 2.8 saves per game, the 14th best in the season. They have conceded an average of 0.55 goals per match.

Injury list - Allison Becker, Elliott and Diogo Jota are all sidelined for the trip to the southern coast. 

Liverpool Probable Starting Lineup -  Kelleher (GK), Trent, Konate, Virgil, Robertson (DEF), Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Salah, Jones, Diaz (MID), Nunez (FWD).

SOUTHAMPTON FC vs LIVERPOOL FC
Winning Prediction

Liverpool could not have wished for a better start under the Dutchman. They are absolutely in dreamland, especially with City in a slump and with Chelsea and Arsenal having to cover the hard yards. Everyone will be expecting Liverpool to easily see off this Southampton side. But it won’t be as such. That’s how the Premier League works, and is why it is regarded as the best in the World because Southampton could come out of nowhere to pick up a result. The Saints made life difficult for Man City and they will certainly repeat that feat against the Merseyside team. 

Liverpool to Win (0-2)

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