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England vs New Zealand, ENG vs NZ 2026, Today Match Prediction
ENG vs NZ Win Probability
Toss Winner - New Zealand won the toss and choose to bat first
New Zealand beat England by 160 runs
Will England seal the series at home?
- Joe Root became only the second batter in Test history to cross 14,000 Test runs during his unbeaten 77-run innings on Day 4 of the second Test at The Oval.
- Glenn Phillips arrives in excellent form after scoring his maiden Test century (exactly 100 runs) in the second Test.
- Matt Henry was the undisputed match-winner at The Oval, claiming career-best match figures of 11 wickets for 109 runs.
England to win
| Tournament: | New Zealand tour of England, 2026 |
| Format: | test |
| Venue: | Trent Bridge Cricket Ground, Nottingham, United Kingdom, United Kingdom |
| Toss Prediction: | To Bat |
| Weather: | 24.1°C|Partly Cloudy |
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ENG vs NZ Betting Odds
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ENG vs NZ Match Prediction & Analysis
The three-match Test series between England and New Zealand heads into a decisive finale as both teams prepare to clash at Trent Bridge, Nottingham. With the series level at 1-1, the third Test will determine who walks away with the series trophy.
England started the series strongly by securing a 115-run victory in the opening Test, but New Zealand responded in impressive fashion at The Oval. The visitors produced an all-round performance to register a commanding 253-run win in the second Test, leveling the series and setting up a winner-takes-all contest in Nottingham.
There is also positive news for England ahead of the finale. According to the ECB's official statement released on 21 June 2026, both Ben Stokes and Gus Atkinson were included in the 15-man squad for the third Test following the conclusion of the disciplinary hearing related to the events of 8 June. The hosts are expected to receive a major boost from the return of captain Ben Stokes.
With the series tied, both teams have everything to play for. England will be aiming to make home advantage count and regain the upper hand, while New Zealand will look to build on the momentum from their dominant victory at The Oval. With the series on the line, another intense and closely fought Test match is expected at Trent Bridge.
RECENT PERFORMANCE
ENG
L
W
L
W
L
ENG
152/10 in 45.2 3.35
The Ashes, 2025-26
England beat Australia by 4 wickets178/6 in 32.2 5.51
NZ
W
L
W
W
W
NZ
HEAD TO HEAD
Last 7 Matches
Show More Show Less
209/10 in 53.2
NZ VS ENG
New Zealand won by 1 run
483/10 in 162.3
306/10 in 82.5
NZ VS ENG
England won by 267 runs
126/10 in 45.3
TEAMS PREVIEW
England Preview
England head into the series decider under pressure after suffering a heavy 253-run defeat in the second Test at The Oval, which allowed New Zealand to level the series 1-1.
Despite some positive individual performances, England failed to deliver collectively across both innings. In the first innings, Emilio Gay top-scored with 53, while Joe Root contributed 46 and Matthew Fisher added a valuable 50 from the lower order as England were bowled out for 291.
Their bowlers did produce moments of resistance. Jacob Bethell impressed with three wickets in New Zealand's first innings, while Jofra Archer, Matthew Fisher and Sonny Baker picked up two wickets each.
In the second innings, Archer and Fisher claimed three wickets apiece, with Josh Tongue adding two, but England still allowed New Zealand to build a decisive lead.
Chasing 463, England's batting lineup struggled again. Joe Root fought hard with 77 and became only the second batter in Test history to cross 14,000 Test runs during that innings, while Harry Brook scored an attacking 58.
However, the rest of the batting order failed to provide enough support as England were dismissed for 209.
The hosts are expected to be boosted by the return of captain Ben Stokes for the series decider, adding valuable leadership, experience and balance to the side.
England will now be aiming to bounce back strongly and reclaim momentum in front of their home crowd.
Key Players: Joe Root, Ben Stokes, Harry Brook
England Predicted Playing XI:
Emilio Gay, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Jamie Smith (wk), Ben Stokes (c), Gus Atkinson, Jofra Archer, Ollie Robinson, Shoaib Bashir.
England Key Players From Previous Game Of New Zealand tour of England, 2026
England Actual Playing XI:
Gus Atkinson, Jamie Smith, Shoaib Bashir, Josh Tongue, Harry Brook, Ben Duckett, Emilio Gay, Joe Root, Ben Stokes, Jacob Bethell, Jofra Archer
New Zealand Preview
New Zealand head into the third Test full of confidence after a dominant 253-run victory at The Oval, which helped them level the series and set up a decider at Trent Bridge.
The visitors delivered an outstanding all-round performance in the second Test. In the first innings, Glenn Phillips starred with a magnificent maiden Test century, scoring 100, while Tom Blundell contributed 51, Daryl Mitchell made 44 and Kyle Jamieson added a valuable 41 lower down the order as New Zealand posted 391.
Their bowlers then took control of the match. Matt Henry led the attack brilliantly with teh figures of 5/80 in the first innings, while William O'Rourke claimed two wickets and Nathan Smith chipped in with one as England were dismissed for 291.
New Zealand's batters built on that advantage in the second innings. Henry Nicholls produced a superb 121, Rachin Ravindra scored 76 and Daryl Mitchell added 68, helping the Black Caps post 362 and set England a daunting target.
The bowling attack once again proved decisive. Matt Henry delivered one of the best performances of his Test career, taking 6/29 in the second innings after his five-for in the first innings to finish with match figures of 11 wickets for 109 runs.
Kyle Jamieson provided excellent support with three wickets in the final innings as England were bowled out for 209.
With both their batting and bowling units firing, New Zealand will believe they have a strong opportunity to secure a memorable series victory in England.
Key Players: Matt Henry, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra
New Zealand Predicted Playing XI:
Tom Latham (c), Devon Conway, Henry Nicholls, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Blundell (wk), Glenn Phillips, Nathan Smith, Kyle Jamieson, Matt Henry, William O'Rourke.
New Zealand Key Players From Previous Game Of New Zealand tour of England, 2026
New Zealand Actual Playing XI:
Henry Nicholls, Daryl Mitchell, Rachin Ravindra, Zakary Foulkes, Nathan Smith, Tom Latham, Tom Blundell, Devon Conway, William O'Rourke, Blair Tickner, Mitchell Santner, Ben Sears
PITCH AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
Weather Conditions
The forecast for Nottingham across the five days of the third Test is for mostly clear and sunny skies on Days 1 and 2, with temperatures ranging from 20°C to 28°C and humidity around 60% to 74%. Conditions will turn noticeably overcast and cloudy on Day 3, which is likely to assist swing bowling, particularly in the morning sessions. There is a 30% chance of light rain on Days 4 and 5, which could cause brief interruptions, but a full match is expected.
ENG vs NZ Pitch Report
Pitch Condition
BalancedBatting Conditions
Moderate ScoringPace Bowling
SwingSpin Bowling
Average Turn
Trent Bridge, Nottingham has traditionally been one of England's most balanced Test venues, offering help to both batters and bowlers. Across the 69 Tests played here, the average first-innings score is 327 runs. Teams batting first have won 26 matches, while teams batting second have won 18, showing a slight advantage for the side setting a target.
The pitch usually provides good pace, bounce and movement for seamers, especially during the opening sessions when the new ball can swing significantly under Nottingham's overhead conditions. The challenging nature of the surface is highlighted by the venue's lowest Test total of just 60 all out.
Once batters get through the early movement, scoring becomes much easier thanks to the true bounce and quick outfield. However, batting tends to get tougher as the match progresses, with the average score dropping from 311 in the second innings to just 160 in the fourth innings. With 25 of the 69 Tests ending in draws, Trent Bridge generally produces competitive cricket, and a first-innings score of 350+ is often considered a strong total.
Toss: To Bat
The captain winning the toss is likely to choose to bat first at Trent Bridge. The numbers support this approach, with teams batting first winning 26 of the 69 Tests played here, compared to 18 victories for the chasing side. With batting generally becoming more difficult as the match progresses, posting a strong first-innings total remains the preferred strategy at this ground.
ENG vs NZ
Winning Prediction
England will be disappointed with the way the second Test slipped away from them. Chasing 463 runs at The Oval, they resumed Day 5 at 182/5 but suffered a dramatic lower-order collapse, losing their final five wickets for just 27 runs before being bowled out for 209. However, the expected return of Ben Stokes for the series decider gives the hosts a major boost in terms of leadership, balance, and experience.
New Zealand arrive with plenty of confidence after their dominant victory in London. Their batting unit stepped up throughout the match with several key contributions, while Matt Henry led a relentless bowling attack that completely dismantled England in the fourth innings. The Black Caps have all the momentum, but Trent Bridge conditions and Stokes' return could tilt the balance back towards the hosts.
In a closely fought series decider, England's home advantage, greater overall depth, and the likely return of their captain give them a slight edge heading into the match.
England to win
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