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Nottinghamshire vs Durham, T20BLAST, Today Match Prediction
NOT vs DUR Win Probability
Toss Winner - Nottinghamshire won the toss and choose to bowl first
Nottinghamshire won by 6 wickets
Nottinghamshire have lost three in a row. Can they bounce back at home?
- Tom Moores has been Nottinghamshire's standout batter, smashing 109 runs in three innings at a strike rate of 188.
- In the last game played at Trent Bridge in this Vitality Blast, Yorkshire chased down a target of 168 against the home side with 21 balls to spare.
- Matthew Potts has been Durham’s most effective bowler and is fresh off three wickets against Yorkshire in a losing cause.
Durham are our picks for the winners of this game.
| Tournament: | Vitality T20 Blast, 2026 |
| Format: | t20 |
| Venue: | Trent Bridge Cricket Ground, Nottingham, United Kingdom, United Kingdom |
| Toss Prediction: | To Bowl |
| Weather: | 19.4°C|Patchy rain nearby |
NOT vs DUR Match Prediction & Analysis
The Vitality Blast Men's 2026 competition continues with a crucial North Group clash as Nottinghamshire Outlaws host Durham at Trent Bridge in Nottingham on Sunday. Two sides at opposite ends of the spectrum collide, with Durham seeking to reclaim top spot after their first defeat, while Nottinghamshire desperately search for their maiden victory of the campaign.
Durham have won two of their three North Group matches so far, sitting third in the table with 8 points and a net run rate of -0.007. Nottinghamshire, meanwhile, are the only side in the North Group yet to register a victory, losing all three matches and languishing at the bottom with zero points and a net run rate of -1.697. The Outlaws now face the daunting prospect of hosting a Durham side hungry to bounce back.
RECENT PERFORMANCE
NOT
L
L
L
W
L
NOT
279/9 in 50.0 5.58
RLODC
Surrey beat Nottinghamshire by 10 runs
289/8 in 50.0 5.78
DUR
L
W
W
W
W
DUR
HEAD TO HEAD
Last 6 Matches
Show More Show Less
187/7 in 20.0
VITALITY T20 BLAST 2023
Nottinghamshire won by 26 runs
161/9 in 20.0
168/6 in 20.0
VITALITY T20 BLAST 2023
Nottinghamshire beat Durham by 5 wickets
171/5 in 19.2
TEAMS PREVIEW
Nottinghamshire Preview
Nottinghamshire have endured a nightmare start to their Vitality Blast campaign. They opened with a seven-wicket home defeat to Yorkshire, where they were restricted to 167-7 before the visitors chased it down with 21 balls to spare. A 39-run loss to Lancashire at Old Trafford followed, and their most recent outing at Derby ended in a 23-run defeat, where they were set 235 to win but finished on 211-6. The result extended their losing streak and deepened the sense of crisis surrounding the Outlaws' campaign.
The batting unit has shown flashes of brilliance but lacks the consistency to post or chase down competitive totals. Tom Moores has been the standout performer, producing a breathtaking unbeaten 75 off just 34 balls against Derbyshire, an innings that included seven sixes and showed his ability to single-handedly take the game away from the opposition. Jack Haynes has also contributed, scoring 45 off 26 balls in the same match, while Joe Clarke and George Munsey have shown glimpses of form without converting into match-winning knocks.
The bowling attack has been the primary concern. Derbyshire's top order piled on 234-4 at Derby, with the Outlaws' bowlers proving expensive across the innings. George Linde, the South African overseas signing, has provided some control with his left-arm spin, but the pace attack of Dillon Pennington and Olly Stone has struggled to contain opposition batters in the powerplay. Benny Howell has chipped in with useful overs, but the Outlaws desperately need a collective improvement with the ball if they are to challenge a strong Durham batting lineup.
Nottinghamshire Predicted Playing XI:
Joe Clarke (C), Tom Moores (WK), George Munsey, Jack Haynes, Joe Pocklington, Benny Howell, George Linde, Freddie McCann, Olly Stone, Dillon Pennington, Mohammad Ali
Nottinghamshire Key Players From Previous Game Of Vitality T20 Blast, 2026
Nottinghamshire Actual Playing XI:
Mohammad Ali, Joe Clarke, Jack Haynes, Benny Howell, George Linde, Freddie McCann, Tom Moores, George Munsey, Dillon Pennington, Joe Pocklington, Olly Stone
Durham Preview
Durham began their season in spectacular fashion, winning their opening two matches to sit atop the North Group. They beat Lancashire by 8 runs at Chester-le-Street before overcoming Northamptonshire by 12 runs in a tight encounter. However, their momentum was halted in the third outing at home against Yorkshire, where they were bowled out for just 93 in reply to 151-9, suffering a 58-run defeat that knocked them off the top of the table. Despite the loss, Durham remain firmly in contention at the top of the table and will be eager to return to winning ways at Trent Bridge.
The batting has been led by Alex Lees, who has accumulated 101 runs in three innings at a blistering strike rate of 174, establishing himself as Durham's most reliable top-order batter. Graham Clark has also impressed, scoring 87 runs in three innings at a strike rate of 174, while David Bedingham contributed a fighting 41 against Yorkshire, the highest score in a difficult chase. Ollie Robinson and Colin Ackermann add further depth to a batting lineup that has consistently posted competitive totals.
The bowling attack has a genuine match-winning quality. Matthew Potts has been exceptional, taking seven wickets in three games and consistently troubling batters with his pace and accuracy. Callum Parkinson has claimed six wickets so far, bowling with control and penetration through the middle overs. The duo of Kasey Aldridge and Ben Raine, who have taken 10 wickets between them, adds variety and experience to an attack that has the firepower to dismantle any batting lineup on its day.
Durham Predicted Playing XI:
Oliver George Robinson (WK), David Bedingham, Alex Lees (C), Graham Clark, Colin Ackermann, Kasey Aldridge, Will Rhodes, Ben Raine, Callum Parkinson, Nathan Sowter, Matthew Potts
Durham Key Players From Previous Game Of Vitality T20 Blast, 2026
Durham Actual Playing XI:
Will Rhodes, Kasey Aldridge, Nathan Sowter, Alex Lees, Ben Raine, Graham Clark, Matthew Potts, David Bedingham, Colin Ackermann, Callum Parkinson, Oliver Robinson
PITCH AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
Weather Conditions
The forecast for Nottingham on Sunday afternoon is generally favourable for cricket. Temperatures are expected to be around 15-17°C (59-63°F) at the start of play, dropping to approximately 11-13°C (52-55°F) by the close. Humidity will be moderate, around 65-75 per cent, with minimal chances of rainfall predicted. The skies are expected to remain partly cloudy with occasional sunny spells, and visibility will be good throughout the match window. Winds will be light to moderate, ensuring no interruptions to the game. Conditions are ideal for a full, high-quality T20 contest.
NOT vs DUR Pitch Report
Pitch Condition
BalancedBatting Conditions
Moderate ScoringPace Bowling
SwingSpin Bowling
Average Turn
In T20 domestic cricket, a total of 77 matches have been played at Trent Bridge, with teams batting first winning 43 times, teams bowling first winning 33 times, and one tie. The average first-innings score is 171, with the highest team total posted being Warwickshire's 261-2 and the lowest being Nottinghamshire's 57 all out.
The pitch at Trent Bridge is generally balanced, offering assistance to both pace bowlers and spinners. Seamers can get some movement early in the innings, particularly with the new ball, while batters who spend time at the crease can score freely once they are set. The scoring pattern analysis from the 77 domestic T20 matches shows that 17 totals have fallen below 150, 19 between 150 and 169, 20 between 170 and 189, and 21 above 190.
A par score is generally considered to be in the region of 170-180, with totals above 190 placing significant pressure on the chasing side. In the previous game played here in the Vitality Blast 2026, Nottinghamshire managed 167-7 after batting first, while Yorkshire chased that target down in 16.3 overs.
Toss: To Bowl
The match is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM local time at Trent Bridge. Historically, at this venue, teams bowling first have enjoyed a slight advantage in domestic T20s, with 33 wins from 77 matches compared to 43 for teams batting first. The pitch tends to offer good pace and carry for batters who play proper shots, but there is also assistance for seamers early in the innings under the afternoon sun. The captain who wins the toss may opt to bowl first, looking to exploit any early movement and set a target that can be chased under the evening conditions.
NOT vs DUR
Winning Prediction
This fixture pits a Durham side smarting from their first defeat against a Nottinghamshire team still searching for their first win of the campaign. Durham have all the ingredients for success at Trent Bridge. Their batting, anchored by the in-form Graham Clark and Alex Lees, has consistently posted competitive totals. Their bowling attack, led by Matthew Potts and Kasey Aldridge, has taken wickets at crucial junctures.
Nottinghamshire, by contrast, have looked disjointed in all three of their opening fixtures. Their batting has shown glimpses of brilliance through Tom Moores, but the rest of the top order has failed to provide consistent support. Joe Clarke, George Munsey, and Jack Haynes have all registered starts without converting them into match-winning scores. The bowling attack has been particularly vulnerable, conceding 167 (16.3 overs), 208, and 234 in three matches, with the pace bowlers struggling to contain opposition batters in the powerplay and the spinners unable to apply pressure through the middle overs.
On paper, Durham hold the edge in batting depth, bowling variety, and recent form. Their ability to bounce back from their first defeat will be tested, but they have consistently shown resilience throughout the season. Nottinghamshire, playing at home, will be desperate to end their losing streak, but the weight of three consecutive defeats and a bowling attack that has leaked runs at an alarming rate makes that task extremely difficult. Expect Durham to exploit Nottinghamshire's vulnerabilities and secure their third victory of the campaign.
Durham are our picks for the winners of this game.
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