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New Zealand vs South Africa, NZ vs SA, Today Match Prediction
NZ vs RSA Win Probability
Toss Winner - South Africa won the toss and choose to bat first
South Africa beat New Zealand by 19 runs
Can New Zealand continue the form to secure the series?
- Ben Sears has 5 wickets in the last 2 games for New Zealand.
- Connor Esterhuizen has 68 runs in 3 games for South Africa.
- New Zealand has 3 wins in the last 5 T20Is against South Africa.
We predict that New Zealand will defeat South Africa.
| Tournament: | South Africa tour of New Zealand, 2026 |
| Format: | t20 |
| Venue: | Sky Stadium, Wellington, New Zealand |
| Toss Prediction: | To Bowl |
| Weather: | 17.1°C|Sunny |
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NZ vs RSA Match Prediction & Analysis
In a series decider, the New Zealand team will play the fourth T20I against South Africa at Sky Stadium, Wellington, on 22nd March from 11:45 am onwards. New Zealand is leading the series 2-1.
New Zealand has taken a 2–1 lead in the T20I series with a dominant win over South Africa, restricting them to 136/9. The bowling attack, led by Mitchell Santner and an economical spell from Lockie Ferguson (4-0-9-1), kept South Africa under pressure throughout. Santner struck key blows early, while South Africa’s batting struggled, with only George Linde and youngster Nqobani Mokoena making notable contributions, the latter scoring an unbeaten 26 from No.10.
In response, New Zealand cruised to the target with ease, thanks to a 96-run opening stand between Devon Conway and Tom Latham. The hosts dominated the powerplay and never looked in trouble, eventually chasing down the total with 22 balls remaining. Latham’s composed half-century highlighted the chase, as New Zealand outclassed South Africa in all departments.
Injuries have marred the series. For South Africa, Eathan Bosch and Jordan Hermann are injured, while from the New Zealand camp, it’s Ish Sodhi and Bevon Jacobs.
RECENT PERFORMANCE
NZ
W
W
L
L
W
NZ
RSA
L
L
W
L
W
RSA
153/7 in 20.0 7.65
ICC WCT20 2026
South Africa beat Zimbabwe by 5 wickets154/5 in 17.5 8.64
HEAD TO HEAD
Last 8 Matches
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TEAMS PREVIEW
New Zealand Preview
New Zealand dominated in the second game with an 8-wicket victory and 22 balls to spare. But they will be without their captain, Mitch Santner, for the last two games. Devon Conway and Tom Latham will open the innings. Conway scored 60 in the second game, followed by 39 in the third. He put up a partnership of 96 with Latham for the first wicket. He will be the batter to watch out for. Latham scored 63 off 55 in the last game. He has 81 runs in 3 games of this series. Tim Robinson will come in at number three. Robinson has scored 585 runs in 27 T20Is played at a strike rate of 136.67 with a century and 2 half-centuries. He has just 7 runs in 2 games.
Nick Kelly will come in the middle with James Neesham and Cole McConchie. Kelly scored 21 off 12 in the last game. Neesham scored 26 runs in the first game but failed on 8 in the next game. Neesham has a good record at Wellington. He has 59 runs in 4 games with a strike rate of 173 and has picked up 5 wickets with the ball. Cole McConchie didn’t get a chance to bat. But he has picked up a wicket in the last game.
Lockie Ferguson and Ben Sears will lead the bowling attack with Kyle Jamieson and McConchie. Ferguson gave just 9 runs in 4 overs and picked up a wicket in the last game to take home the player of the match trophy. Ferguson has 4 wickets in the last 2 games. He can be the bowler to watch out for. Jamieson and Sears picked up 2 wickets each in the last game.
Key Players: Devon Conway, Lockie Ferguson, Devon Conway.
NZ Over/Under Betting Tips
Tom Latham Total Runs Over 22.5 @ 1.85
Tom Latham has scores of 63, 11 and 7 this series. After a couple of low scores, Latham played a match winning knock of 63 runs in the last match. Against South Africa he is averaging 24 runs per match in T20I's and so far this series he scored 81 runs in 3 matches.
Devon Conway Total Runs Over 24.5 @ 1.85
Conway is the leading run-scorer in the series with 99 runs in 3 matches, averaging 33. He has scored over 24 runs in two of the last three matches. Given his current run of form, we back Conway to play another match winning knock in today's match and predict his score to be over 24.
New Zealand Predicted Playing XI:
Tim Robinson, Josh Clarkson, Tom Latham, Nick Kelly, Cole McConchie, James Neesham, Lockie Ferguson, Nathan Smith, Ben Sears, Zak Foulkes, Devon Conway.
New Zealand Key Players From Previous Game Of South Africa tour of New Zealand, 2026
New Zealand Actual Playing XI:
Nick Kelly, James Neesham, Zakary Foulkes, Cole McConchie, Dane Cleaver, Kyle Jamieson, Ben Sears, Katene Clarke, Tim Robinson, Josh Clarkson, Bevon Jacobs
South Africa Preview
South Africa has been pushed back by a mile by the home side. The consecutive losses have exposed their inexperience. It will be their final chance to take the series into the last game. Wiaan Mulder will open the innings with Tony de Zorzi. Mulder has 16 runs in 24 balls played in this series. Zorzi scored 15 in the last game. Connor Esterhuizen will come in at number three. He has 68 runs in 3 games at a strike rate of 100.
Jason Smith will come in the middle with Dian Forrester, Rubin Hermann, and George Linde. Smith scored 32 runs while Forrester scored 43 in 3 games. Linde played a fiery knock of 33 runs off 12 balls in the second game, followed by 23 off 19 in the last. He will be the batter to watch out for. He has 389 runs in 25 innings at a strike rate of 150 and has picked up 34 wickets at an economy of 7.45.
Keshav Maharaj will lead the bowling attack with Lutho Sipamla, Nqobani Mokoena, and Gerald Coetzee. Maharaj has 4 wickets in 3 games. Sipamla picked up a wicket in the last game. Mokoena and Coetzee have 3 wickets each in 3 games. Ottneil Baartman didn’t play the last game. He was the leading wicket-taker in the recent SA20.
Key Players: Connor Esterhuizen, Gerald Coetzee, George Linde.
SA Over/Under Betting Tips
Connor Esterhuizen Total Runs Over 18.5 @ 1.85
Esterhuizen has scores of 15, 8 and 45* this series so far, he has gotten off to starts but failed to convert them into impactful ones. With the series on the line in this fixture at Wellington, we back Esterhuizen to make an impact and score over 18 runs.
South Africa Predicted Playing XI:
Ottneil Baartman, Gerald Coetzee, Rubin Hermann, Tony de Zorzi, Connor Esterhuizen, Dian Forrester, Jordan Hermann, George Linde, Keshav Maharaj, Nqobani Mokoena.
South Africa Key Players From Previous Game Of South Africa tour of New Zealand, 2026
South Africa Actual Playing XI:
Keshav Maharaj, Jason Smith, Prenelan Subrayen, Ottneil Baartman, Tony de Zorzi, George Linde, Gerald Coetzee, Rubin Hermann, Dian Forrester, Connor Esterhuizen, Wiaan Mulder
PITCH AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
Weather Conditions
The weather in Wellington is expected to be sunny on match day, with temperatures ranging from 15 to 21 degrees Celsius. Winds will blow from the southeast at 6-10 km/h.
NZ vs RSA Pitch Report
The match will be played at Sky Stadium, Wellington, on 22nd March from 11:45 am onwards The average first innings score at Sky Stadium, Wellington, is 153, 22 more than the second innings. The 200-run mark has been crossed on 4 times at this venue.
Total Over/Under Betting Tips
New Zealand to win the coin toss @ 1.90
We back New Zealand to win the coin toss in the 4th T20I match against South Africa.
Toss: To Bowl
It is a batting-friendly pitch. In the 24 T20Is played here, the team chasing the target has won on 13 occasions. The team winning the toss should bowl first.
NZ vs RSA
Winning Prediction
New Zealand has a poor track record in Auckland. They have just 2 wins in the last 6 games. Both victories have come while chasing the target. Devon Conway has 154 runs in 4 games played here. South African bowlers are going through a poor run and has picked up just 8 wickets in the last 2 games.
We predict that New Zealand will defeat South Africa.
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