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Hampshire vs Surrey, T20BLAST, Today Match Prediction
HAM vs SUR Win Probability
Toss Winner - Surrey won the toss and choose to bat first
Hampshire beat Surrey by 5 wickets
Surrey have won three of their last four Blast matches against Hampshire.
- James Vince leads Hampshire’s batting charts currently with 66 runs in two matches at a strike rate of 178.37.
- Scott Currie has been the most impressive bowler for Hampshire, taking six wickets in two games at an economy of 5.62.
- Surrey captain Sam Curran has been in devastating form with the bat, hitting an unbeaten 71 from 47 deliveries to steer his side home in a low-scoring London derby against Middlesex at Lord's.
Back Surrey as the winners of this game
| Tournament: | Vitality T20 Blast, 2026 |
| Format: | t20 |
| Venue: | The Rose Bowl, Southampton, United Kingdom, United Kingdom |
| Toss Prediction: | To Bowl |
| Weather: | 22.1°C|Sunny |
HAM vs SUR Match Prediction & Analysis
A fascinating South Group derby awaits at the Utilita Bowl (formerly the Rose Bowl) in Southampton on Friday evening as the Hampshire Hawks prepare to host Surrey. It is a contest between a side finding their rhythm and the early pace-setters of the group. After an opening defeat, Hampshire displayed tremendous character to bounce back with a statement win over Essex. Surrey, however, have been flawless, collecting four points from two tricky away fixtures without ever hitting top gear - a sign of a champion side capable of winning ugly.
The stakes are particularly high for the home side. Having already lost one game out of two this season, a second defeat would leave Hampshire with a mountain to climb in a competitive South Group. For the visitors, another win would consolidate their position at the summit and extend their winning streak. Both teams are packed with international quality, but the contrasting momentum of their respective campaigns adds an intriguing layer to this coastal clash.
RECENT PERFORMANCE
HAM
W
L
L
L
W
HAM
SUR
W
W
L
W
L
SUR
147/6 in 14.0 10.5
154/4 in 14.0 11
HEAD TO HEAD
Last 8 Matches
Show More Show Less
124/10 in 19.2
VITALITY T20 BLAST 2023
Hampshire won by 9 wkts
125/1 in 14.2
156/4 in 20.0
VITALITY T20 BLAST 2023
Surrey beat Hampshire by 6 wickets
157/4 in 18.5
TEAMS PREVIEW
Hampshire Preview
Hampshire head to this clash having split their first two matches, losing to Somerset at Taunton before bouncing back with a commanding home win over Essex. They are a side that knows they need to respond quickly: losing last year's final hurt, but Hampshire have never been successful in the Blast by licking their wounds, and the motivation to become the first four-time champions is a powerful one.
The batting is built around two players who have been at the heart of their recent success. Toby Albert was the leading run-scorer across the entire 2025 Blast with 633 runs, striking at 150 over the campaign with six half-centuries. Captain James Vince was not far behind, scoring 527 runs at a strike rate of 152 in 2025 and was in excellent touch against Somerset, making 58 off just 34 balls before falling to Overton with the score at 113 for 5. The collapse that followed, surrendering the last five wickets for 25 runs, was a familiar worry that this batting lineup must address.
Tristan Stubbs arrived from the IPL less than 24 hours before Hampshire's last match and immediately struck a 42-ball 69 with five sixes against Essex.
With the ball, Scott Currie delivered a personal best 4-18 to wrap up the win. Currie took 27 wickets in 2025 to lead the Hawks' attack, and alongside the experienced Liam Dawson, who claimed 13 wickets at an economy rate of 7.22, gives the side excellent variety. Chris Wood and Sonny Baker complete an attack with genuine depth. At home, where conditions suit their bowlers, the Hawks are a dangerous proposition.
Hampshire Predicted Playing XI:
Toby Albert(w), James Vince(c), Joe Weatherley, Hilton Cartwright, Tom Prest, Tristan Stubbs, James Fuller, Liam Dawson, Scott Currie, Andrew John Neal, Chris Wood
Hampshire Key Players From Previous Game Of Vitality T20 Blast, 2026
Hampshire Actual Playing XI:
Toby Albert, Hilton Cartwright, Scott Currie, Liam Dawson, James Fuller, Tom Prest, Tristan Stubbs, James Vince, Joe Weatherley, Chris Wood, Manny Lumsden
Surrey Preview
Surrey have started strongly, having won both of their opening matches to sit at the top of the table with eight points. Their campaign began with a statement performance against Lancashire at the Kia Oval, before they followed it up with a six-wicket win in the London Derby at Lord's three days later.
The win over Lancashire was a showcase of their batting depth. Jason Roy blazed 45 from just 19 balls, and Tom Curran followed with a devastating 49 from 20 to propel Surrey to 213 for 6. Against Middlesex, it was captain Sam Curran who did the rescuing. Arriving at the crease with Surrey in trouble at 18 for 2, he struck an unbeaten 71 from 47 balls, sharing an unbroken stand of 88 with Laurie Evans to see his side home with nine deliveries to spare.
Roy's form will be a source of particular encouragement. Now back after an injury-replacement stint with Karachi Kings in the PSL, he has rediscovered his appetite for the game and looks as destructive as ever at the top of the order. Sam Curran's dual role as captain and match-winner with both bat and ball is at the heart of everything Surrey do; he was the county's leading wicket-taker in 2025 with 21 dismissals, while Will Jacks led the run-scoring charts with 504 runs.
The bowling attack is led by Reece Topley, who has taken 131 wickets in 91 Blast appearances at an average of 19.70 and was devastating in the opening match, removing Keaton Jennings and Matty Hurst before Lancashire had scored a run. He is ably supported by Australian overseas signing Sean Abbott and slow left-armer Yousef Majid, who claimed three for 42 as Lancashire were bowled out for 154.
Surrey Predicted Playing XI:
Jason Roy, Adam Thomas, Ollie Pope, Sam Curran(c), Dan Lawrence, Laurie Evans(w), Tom Curran, Jordan Clark, Sean Abbott, Yousef Majid, Reece Topley
Surrey Key Players From Previous Game Of Vitality T20 Blast, 2026
Surrey Actual Playing XI:
Dan Lawrence, Jason Roy, Jordan Clark, Laurie Evans, Ollie Pope, Reece Topley, Sam Curran, Sean Abbott, Tom Curran, Will Jacks, Yousef Majid
PITCH AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
Weather Conditions
Expect a pleasant late‑spring evening in Southampton. The forecast indicates clear to partly cloudy skies, with no significant rain expected during the match window. Temperatures will be comfortable for cricket, starting at around 18°C (64°F) and dropping to approximately 14°C (57°F) by the close. Humidity will be moderate, and any breeze is likely to be light. Conditions are therefore ideal for a full, uninterrupted contest.
HAM vs SUR Pitch Report
Across 80 T20 domestic matches at The Rose Bowl, teams batting first have won 47 and chasing sides 31, with two ties. The average first innings score is 163.
The last five Blast matches here tell the story well. Hampshire posted 230 for 7 against Essex (won by 106 runs), 178 for 3 against Somerset (lost off the last ball), 208 for 4 against Glamorgan (won by 95 runs), while Sussex chased down 168 successfully and Surrey posted 193 for 6 in a 69-run win. That gives a first innings average of roughly 196 across those five matches, noticeably higher than the ground's all-time mean, suggesting pitches at Southampton have got better to bat on in recent seasons.
The pitch aids both pace and spin, particularly in the middle overs, and overhead conditions can assist swing with the new ball. Batting first remains the preferred option, but chases are increasingly viable. A total of 170 or above still puts the bowling side firmly in the driver's seat.
Toss: To Bowl
The match is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM local time under the floodlights. The weather in Southampton is expected to be dry with clear spells, meaning a full contest is likely. The Utilita Bowl is a venue where teams bowling first have enjoyed a slight historical advantage, with the pitch offering some assistance to the seamers under the evening conditions. However, both sides have powerful batting line‑ups, and the captain who wins the toss may back his batters to post a competitive total and put the opposition under scoreboard pressure.
HAM vs SUR
Winning Prediction
This is a clash between a Hampshire side riding the wave of a new overseas signing and a Surrey outfit that has developed a winning habit. Stubbs' arrival has injected fresh energy into the Hawks' batting line-up, and their depth - with Cartwright, Weatherley, and Vince in the top order - makes them a dangerous unit. Wood and Currie have led the bowling attack well, and the return to home conditions could prove decisive.
However, Surrey possess a more balanced and battle-hardened unit. Sam Curran has already produced two match-winning performances, and the presence of four international-quality pace bowlers - Topley, Tom Curran, Sean Abbott, and Jordan Clark - gives them an attack capable of defending any total. Their recent head-to-head record against Hampshire is also dominant, having won three of the last four meetings. The visitors have shown they can win when not at their best, a hallmark of title contenders, and they will be desperate to extend their unbeaten start.
Surrey's ability to absorb pressure, defend modest totals, and execute their plans under the leadership of Sam Curran gives them the edge against a Hampshire side still building cohesion. Expect a competitive contest, but the visitors should have enough quality to emerge victorious.
Back Surrey as the winners of this game
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