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Sydney Thunder Women vs Melbourne Renegades Women, WT20SC, Today Match Prediction
STW vs MRW Win Probability
Toss Winner - Sydney Thunder Women won the toss and choose to bowl first
In-play
Can the Renegades make it two wins in a row?
- Tahlia Wilson has scored 31 runs in one innings across two matches for Sydney Thunder Women so far.
- Courtney Webb has scored 107 runs in two matches for Melbourne Renegades Women in the tournament.
- Tess Flintoff has claimed seven wickets in two matches for Melbourne Renegades Women.
Melbourne Renegades Women to win the match.
| Tournament: | T20 Spring Challenge, 2026 |
| Format: | t20 |
| Venue: | Sydney Olympic Park, Australia, Australia |
| Toss Prediction: | To Bowl |
| Weather: | 15.9°C|Patchy rain nearby |
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STW vs MRW Match Prediction & Analysis
Sydney Thunder Women will meet Melbourne Renegades Women in the 11th match of the T20 Spring Challenge 2026-27 at Blacktown Olympic Park No. 2 Oval in Sydney on October 17.
Sydney Thunder Women are currently third in the points table with three points from two matches, having recorded one win and one no-result, with a net run rate of +4.272. Melbourne Renegades Women sit sixth with two points from two matches, having won once and lost once, with a net run rate of -0.843.
Sydney Thunder Women have won three, lost one and had one no-result in their last five matches, while Melbourne Renegades Women have recorded two wins and three defeats in their last five outings. The head-to-head record over the last five meetings favours the Renegades, who have won three matches compared to Thunder's two victories.
Melbourne Renegades Women head into this fixture after edging past Melbourne Stars Women by one run in their previous match. Meanwhile, Thunder’s most recent game was against Brisbane Heat Women, which was abandoned due to rain after the toss, with no play possible.
Sydney Thunder Women will look to make the most of their strong position in the standings, while the Renegades will aim to build on their recent win and improve their points-table standing.
RECENT PERFORMANCE
STW
W
W
W
L
L
STW
79/3 in 9.4 8.17
WT20SC
Sydney Thunder Women beat Melbourne Stars Women by 7 wickets
78/10 in 15.0 5.2
66/6 in 10.0 6.6
79/1 in 7.1 11.02
153/7 in 20.0 7.65
130/6 in 20.0 6.5
176/4 in 19.1 9.18
174/6 in 20.0 8.7
64/10 in 17.0 3.76
68/2 in 11.1 6.09
MRW
W
L
W
L
L
MRW
138/7 in 20.0 6.9
WT20SC
Perth Scorchers Women Won by 6 wickets
139/4 in 16.1 8.6
184/5 in 20.0 9.2
154/9 in 20.0 7.7
115/10 in 16.3 6.97
160/5 in 20.0 8
HEAD TO HEAD
Last 5 Matches
Show More Show Less
151/6 in 18.1
148/7 in 20.0
TEAMS PREVIEW
Sydney Thunder Women Preview
Sydney Thunder Women’s most recent match against Brisbane Heat Women in the T20 Spring Challenge 2026-27 was abandoned due to rain after the toss on October 13, with no play possible. In their previously completed match against Melbourne Stars Women, Thunder chased down a target of 79 runs, reaching 79/3 in 9.4 overs to secure a seven-wicket victory with 62 balls remaining.
With the bat, Tahlia Wilson led the chase with 31 runs off 16 balls, while Anika Learoyd contributed 28 off 23 deliveries. Emily Powell remained unbeaten on nine as Thunder completed the chase comfortably.
With the ball, Jemma Barsby delivered an economical spell, claiming five wickets for 10 runs in three overs, while Samantha Bates supported her well with three wickets for 14 runs in three overs. Their combined effort helped restrict Melbourne Stars Women to just 78 runs.
Sydney Thunder Women will aim to build on that convincing performance as they prepare for their next fixture. Their strong bowling display and effective top-order batting offer encouraging signs, although they will need to maintain consistency against Melbourne Renegades Women.
Key Players: Tahlia Wilson, Samantha Bates, Jemma Barsby
Sydney Thunder Women Predicted Playing XI:
Tahlia Wilson (c & wk), Anika Learoyd, Emily Powell, Laura Harris, Lucy Finn, Hannah Darlington, Jemma Barsby, Hasrat Gill, Tara French, Nicola Hancock, Samantha Bates.
Sydney Thunder Women Actual Playing XI:
Laura May Harris, Heather Knight, Anika Learoyd, Lucy Finn, Hasrat Gill, Nicola Hancock, Alex Mavros, Tahlia Wilson, Jemma Barsby, Samantha Bates, Emily Powell
Melbourne Renegades Women Preview
Melbourne Renegades Women registered a thrilling one-run victory over Melbourne Stars Women in their previous match. Batting first, the Renegades posted 180/4 in 20 overs before restricting the Stars to 179/6 while defending 181.
With the bat, Courtney Webb led the innings with an impressive 82 off 53 balls, while Sophie Reid contributed 44 off 34 deliveries. Tess Flintoff added a quick 30 off 18 balls to help the Renegades finish with a competitive total.
With the ball, Tess Flintoff claimed four wickets for 32 runs in her four overs, while Tarah Staines and Annabelle Glossop picked up one wicket each. Their efforts proved crucial as the Renegades held their nerve to secure a narrow victory.
Melbourne Renegades Women will look to build on that close win against Sydney Thunder Women. Their batting lineup has shown the ability to post a strong total, while Flintoff’s impact with the ball gives them an important edge heading into the contest.
Key Players: Courtney Webb, Sophie Reid, Tess Flintoff
Melbourne Renegades Women Predicted Playing XI:
Courtney Webb, Sophie Reid, Tess Flintoff, Olivia Porter, Nicole Faltum (c & wk), Annie Wikman, Milly Illingworth, Tarah Staines, Lucy Wilson, Annabelle Glossop, Sara Kennedy.
Melbourne Renegades Women Key Players From Previous Game Of T20 Spring Challenge, 2026
Melbourne Renegades Women Actual Playing XI:
Courtney Webb, Sophie Reid, Olivia Porter, Lucy Wilson, Tarah Staines, Ava Drury, Sara Kennedy, Annie Wikman, Milly Hall Illingworth, Annabell Glossop, Olivia Henry
PITCH AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
Weather Conditions
The weather in Sydney is expected to be partly sunny, with temperatures around 20°C during the match. Humidity is forecast at 63%, while winds are expected to blow at approximately 18 km/h. With only a 5% chance of precipitation, rain is unlikely to interrupt play, and conditions should remain favourable for a full match.
STW vs MRW Pitch Report
The pitch at Blacktown Olympic Park No. 2 Oval in Sydney has produced an average first-innings score of 133 runs across the two T20 Spring Challenge matches played so far, indicating a moderate-scoring surface.
The early results suggest that batters can build competitive totals, but the bowling side can also make regular breakthroughs. A score in the 140-150 range could prove competitive if the bowlers maintain good discipline, while batters will need to build partnerships rather than rely solely on aggressive shots.
Score Prediction
If Sydney Thunder Women bat first: 140-155 runs
If Melbourne Renegades Women bat first: 145-160 runs
Toss: To Bowl
The two matches played at this venue have produced one win for the team batting first and one for the chasing side. Melbourne Renegades Women have already played at this ground, where they lost after batting first. This could influence their approach if they win the toss, particularly given that chasing teams have also enjoyed success here. With the average first-innings score at 132.5, the captain may prefer to bowl first.
Toss Prediction: Melbourne Renegades Women to win the toss.
STW vs MRW
Winning Prediction
Melbourne Renegades Women carry great momentum after defending 180 to beat Melbourne Stars Women by a single run. Sydney Thunder Women also beat the Stars before a rain washout, but the Renegades hold the advantage. Their strong batting depth and cool bowling in the death overs give them the edge to win this match.
Melbourne Renegades Women to win the match.
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