What does Bangladesh's historic series win mean for the race to the WTC Final?
Bangladesh's recent Test series victory marks a significant milestone in their World Test Championship (WTC) campaign, catapulting them into the upper echelons of the points table and bringing a renewed sense of belief in their quest for a spot in the WTC final.
This series win, their third in the current cycle, stands in stark contrast to their previous struggles, where they managed just one win across 19 matches in the first two WTC editions. Now, with their newfound momentum, Bangladesh is in the middle of their best run yet, and the implications for the WTC race are profound.
Bangladesh's Ascent in the WTC Points Table
Starting the series just above the West Indies, Bangladesh's fortunes have changed dramatically. Their recent victory has lifted them to fourth place on the WTC points table, with a PCT (percentage of points won) of 45.83%, just edging out England. This leap is a testament to their consistent performances, marking a significant improvement over previous cycles.
In contrast, Pakistan's fortunes have taken a nosedive. Once a strong contender, Pakistan has now lost five consecutive Tests, dropping to eighth place with a PCT of 19.05%. Their struggles have left them in a precarious position, with their hopes of qualifying for the WTC final now hanging by a thread.
The Road Ahead for Bangladesh
With six Tests remaining in their WTC campaign, Bangladesh faces a challenging schedule. They will tour India, followed by a tour of the Caribbean, before hosting South Africa at home. All three series consist of two Tests each, and Bangladesh will need to continue their winning ways to keep their WTC Final hopes alive.
To realistically qualify for the final, Bangladesh would need to amass at least 52 more points, likely requiring four wins and a draw in their remaining matches. This is no small feat, but with their current form, Bangladesh will be cautiously optimistic about their chances.
Pakistan's Diminishing Hopes
For Pakistan, the path to the WTC final is far more arduous. Their five-match losing streak has left them in a dire situation, with a daunting series of challenges ahead. Pakistan's upcoming schedule includes a difficult tour to South Africa, where they have lost their last seven Tests, sandwiched between home series against England and the West Indies.
To reach the 58.2% PCT that India achieved in the previous WTC cycle to qualify for the final, Pakistan would need 84 points, meaning they would have to win all seven of their remaining Tests. Given their current form, this seems like an improbable task, effectively ending their chances of making it to the final.
The Bigger Picture: Trans-Tasman Teams and the WTC Race
Neither Bangladesh nor Pakistan will face Australia or New Zealand, who currently occupy second and third places on the WTC points table, respectively. This adds another layer of complexity to the WTC race. Both teams would benefit if Australia or New Zealand were to drop points in their remaining fixtures, potentially opening the door for another contender to rise.
Bangladesh's historic series win has not only boosted their standing in the WTC points table but also brought them into serious contention for a spot in the WTC final. While challenges remain, particularly in their upcoming fixtures, the possibility of Bangladesh making it to the final is now more tangible than ever.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s WTC campaign is on life support, with their chances of qualification looking increasingly bleak. As the WTC race heats up, all eyes will be on Bangladesh to see if they can continue their remarkable run and achieve what once seemed impossible.
