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Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women, WBBLT20, Today Match Prediction
MRW vs STW Win Probability
Toss Winner - Sydney Thunder Women won the toss and choose to bowl first
Sydney Thunder Women beat Melbourne Renegades Women by 6 wickets
Renegades and Thunder battle out in the season opener
- Georgia Wareham was one of the joint-highest wicket-takers last season, picking up 19 wickets at an average of 10.94.
- Phoebe Litchfield scored 271 runs for the Sydney Thunder at a strike rate of 150.56.
- Georgia Voll also had a good all-round season, scoring 174 runs and taking 10 wickets.
Melbourne Renegades Women to win the match.
| Tournament: | Womens Big Bash League, 2026 |
| Format: | t20 |
| Venue: | Junction Oval, St Kilda, Melbourne, Australia, Australia |
| Toss Prediction: | To Bowl |
| Weather: | 17.4°C|Sunny |
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MRW vs STW Match Prediction & Analysis
Melbourne Renegades Women and Sydney Thunder Women will meet in the 1st match of the Women's Big Bash League 2026 at Junction Oval in Melbourne.
Both teams had a mixed season last year. Melbourne Renegades finished fifth with 5 wins and 5 losses, just missing out on a place in the top four. Sydney Thunder, meanwhile, finished seventh with 4 wins, 5 losses and one no result.
This has been a very close rivalry over the years, with both teams winning 10 matches each in their 20 meetings. So, the winner of this game will take the lead in their head-to-head record.
However, the recent record is in favour of the Renegades, who have won their last three meetings against the Thunder. They also bowled the Thunder out for just 64 in Sydney last November, the lowest total in this fixture.
RECENT PERFORMANCE
MRW
W
L
W
L
W
MRW
132/2 in 17.1 7.69
129/8 in 20.0 6.45
122/5 in 18.5 6.48
121/9 in 20.0 6.05
138/7 in 20.0 6.9
WT20SC
Perth Scorchers Women Won by 6 wickets
139/4 in 16.1 8.6
STW
L
W
W
W
W
STW
152/9 in 20.0 7.6
153/6 in 19.3 7.85
93/2 in 13.1 7.06
92/10 in 18.2 5.02
122/5 in 18.5 6.48
121/9 in 20.0 6.05
79/3 in 9.4 8.17
WT20SC
Sydney Thunder Women beat Melbourne Stars Women by 7 wickets
78/10 in 15.0 5.2
66/6 in 10.0 6.6
79/1 in 7.1 11.02
HEAD TO HEAD
Last 6 Matches
Show More Show Less
64/10 in 17.0
68/2 in 11.1
151/6 in 18.1
148/7 in 20.0
TEAMS PREVIEW
Melbourne Renegades Women Preview
Melbourne Renegades finished fifth last season with 5 wins from 10 matches, just missing out on a place in the qualifiers. They have made several changes to their squad, with Alice Capsey, who scored 170 runs and took 13 wickets last season, moving to the Sixers along with Sarah Coyte. Naomi Stalenberg has joined the Stars, while Davina Perrin was not re-signed. Chloe Tryon, Sophie Reid, Olivia Porter and Annie Wikman are the new additions.
The biggest boost is the return of Hayley Matthews, who missed the whole of last season after shoulder surgery. She was the Player of the Match in the Renegades' 2024 title win and will be back at the top of the order. Tayla Vlaeminck is also set to play her first WBBL match since November 2021 after several injury-hit seasons. Sophie Molineux will continue as captain, having played only 6 matches last season while managing a knee problem.
Georgia Wareham was the Renegades' top run-scorer last season, making 277 runs at an average of 39.57 and a strike rate of 147.34. Courtney Webb scored 176 runs, while Nicole Faltum added 153 runs at an average of 30.60 and a strike rate of 130.76.
Molineux scored 96 runs in six matches, while Deandra Dottin managed only 84 runs. Matthews' return should make a big difference to the batting line-up. She scored 324 runs in the 10th season of the WBBL and also made 69 in the final. New signing Chloe Tryon will add more depth, having scored 277 runs at a strike rate of 131.27 in her last full WBBL season for the Sixers in 2023.
Wareham was also the Renegades' leading wicket-taker last season, picking up 19 wickets at an average of 10.94 and an economy rate of 5.47. Her performances earned her the Player of the Tournament award. With Capsey no longer available, Milly Illingworth and Tess Flintoff will have bigger roles to play after taking 9 and 7 wickets respectively last season.
Dottin also picked up 6 wickets. The pace attack will be worth watching, with Vlaeminck's return adding extra speed alongside Illingworth and left-arm pacer Sara Kennedy. The spin options also look good, with Molineux, Wareham, Matthews and Tryon all available. If the returning players stay fit and perform well, the Renegades could have a much better season this time around.
Key Players: Georgia Wareham, Hayley Matthews, Sophie Molineux
Melbourne Renegades Women Predicted Playing XI:
Deandra Dottin, Hayley Matthews, Courtney Webb, Sophie Molineux (c), Georgia Wareham, Chloe Tryon, Annie Wikman, Nicole Faltum (wk), Tess Flintoff, Milly Illingworth, Tayla Vlaeminck
Melbourne Renegades Women Actual Playing XI:
Deandra Dottin, Tess Flintoff, Hayley Matthews, Georgia Wareham, Courtney Webb, Sophie Molineux, Chloe Tryon, Annie Wikman, Nicole Faltum, Milly Hall Illingworth, Tayla Vlaeminck
Sydney Thunder Women Preview
Sydney Thunder finished 7th last season with 4 wins, 5 losses and one no result. Their bowling was a concern, with Shabnim Ismail leading the attack with 12 wickets. However, both Ismail and Chamari Athapaththu have now left the team, along with Taneale Peschel and Em Arlott. Thunder have brought in Lauren Bell and Nadine de Klerk as their overseas signings, while Nicola Hancock and Jemma Barsby have also joined the squad.
Phoebe Litchfield will captain the side for a second season, while Heather Knight is back for her 5th season with the club after retiring from international cricket in July. Knight has won the club's best-player medal in 3 of her 4 seasons. Hannah Darlington is also back after missing the whole of last season due to a serious leg injury. Anika Learoyd will be looking to secure a place in the top four after a good Australia A tour of India.
Phoebe Litchfield was the Thunder's top run-scorer last season, making 271 runs at a strike rate of 150.55. Tahlia Wilson scored 204 runs, including a knock of 79, while Heather Knight added 201 runs at a strike rate of 131.37.
Georgia Voll scored 174 runs, and Anika Learoyd contributed 125. The main concern was the lower order, where Laura Harris scored just 69 runs despite having a strike rate of 197, with her highest score being 21*.
Nadine de Klerk's arrival should help address this issue, as she can add more power to the middle and lower order. Thunder will need their batters to contribute more consistently if they want to improve on last season's result.
With Shabnim Ismail gone, the Thunder have made several changes to their bowling attack. Lauren Bell is one of the key new additions. She played only two matches during her previous stint with the Thunder in the ninth season, but she now returns with plenty of experience as a leading fast bowler from England.
Nadine de Klerk also brings pace and experience from her time with the Brisbane Heat. Among the bowlers who remained from last season, Georgia Voll took 10 wickets, Sam Bates picked up 8 wickets at an economy rate of 5.94, and young Lucy Finn picked up 6 wickets in 7 matches. Darlington's return from injury should also strengthen the pace attack.
Thunder have made some important changes to their bowling line-up, and they will hope the new signings can deliver better results this season.
Key Players: Phoebe Litchfield, Heather Knight, Lauren Bell
Sydney Thunder Women Predicted Playing XI:
Georgia Voll, Phoebe Litchfield (c), Heather Knight, Anika Learoyd, Tahlia Wilson (wk), Nadine de Klerk, Laura Harris, Jemma Barsby, Nicola Hancock, Sam Bates, Lauren Bell
Sydney Thunder Women Actual Playing XI:
Laura May Harris, Heather Knight, Anika Learoyd, Phoebe Litchfield, Georgia Voll, Hasrat Gill, Tahlia Wilson, Samantha Bates, Lauren Bell, Hannah Darlington, Nadine de Klerk
PITCH AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
Weather Conditions
Melbourne is expected to have mostly sunny weather on Thursday, with temperatures around 19°C at the start of play. No rain is forecast during the match, so weather interruptions are unlikely and a full game is expected.
MRW vs STW Pitch Report
Junction Oval hosted 9 WBBL matches last season, and teams chasing had the better record. Out of the eight matches with a result, 6 were won by the team batting 2nd, while only 2 were won by the side batting first. The average first-innings score was 132, but bigger totals are also possible, with the ground seeing 184 for just 5 in a rain-affected match and the Stars scoring 160 in another game.
In the 11th season at Junction Oval, the Renegades played 5 matches, winning 3 and losing 2. The Thunder played 2 matches, winning 1 and losing 1. Their head-to-head record at this venue is also close, with the Renegades winning 3 of their 5 meetings and Thunder winning 2.
Thunder won here in 2018 while chasing 98 and beat the Renegades by 37 runs in 2023. However, the Renegades have won the last 2 meetings at this ground, by 9 wickets in 2024 and 4 wickets last season. Both wins came while chasing. With sunny and dry weather expected and no dew likely during this day's game, the captain winning the toss should bowl first.
Score Prediction
If Melbourne Renegades Women bat first: 140-155 runs
If Sydney Thunder Women bat first: 135-150 runs
Toss: To Bowl
Chasing has worked well at Junction Oval, with 6 of the 8 WBBL matches last season won by the team batting second. Renegades have also won their last 2 matches against Thunder at this ground while chasing. Looking at these numbers, the captain winning the toss is likely to bowl first and chase the target.
Toss Prediction: Sydney Thunder Women to win the coin toss
MRW vs STW
Winning Prediction
The rivalry between these two teams is level at 10-10, and their matches have often been close. Thunder have added Lauren Bell and Nadine de Klerk to improve their bowling attack after struggling last season. However, they have lost their leading wicket-taker, Shabnim Ismail, and have also lost their last 3 matches against the Renegades.
Renegades will play at home, where they have won their last 2 meetings against the Thunder. They also welcome back Hayley Matthews, who played a key role in their 2024 title win, while Georgia Wareham was one of the best performers last season. With their spin options, home advantage and recent record against the Thunder, Renegades start as slight favourites.
Melbourne Renegades Women to win the match.
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