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Pakistan vs Australia, AUS vs PAK 2026, Today Match Prediction
PAK vs AUS Win Probability
Toss Winner - Australia won the toss and choose to bat first
Pakistan Won by 4 wickets
Pakistan and Australia battle out in the series decider at Lahore
- Nathan Ellis was named Player of the Match in the second ODI for his outstanding figures of 4/33.
- Arafat Minhas has emerged as Pakistan's leading performer with both bat and ball during the series.
- The series is currently level at 1-1.
Pakistan to Win the series (2-1)
| Tournament: | Australia tour of Pakistan, 2026 |
| Format: | odi |
| Venue: | Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore Cantt, Pakistan |
| Toss Prediction: | To Bat |
| Weather: | 30.2°C|Moderate or heavy rain with thunder |
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PAK vs AUS Match Prediction & Analysis
The three-match ODI series between Pakistan and Australia heads into a thrilling decider after Australia bounced back strongly in the second ODI to level the series 1-1. Pakistan won the opening ODI by five wickets, while Australia responded with a disciplined all-round performance in Lahore, securing a 41-run victory after defending 231. With the series now on the line, both teams will be desperate to deliver one final strong performance and clinch the trophy.
The series has been highly competitive so far, with both teams producing strong bowling performances. Pakistan dominated the opening ODI through their spinners, while Australia answered back in the second match with excellent bowling led by Nathan Ellis and Matthew Short.
The deciding ODI could come down to which batting unit handles pressure better. Pakistan will rely on home conditions and their spin attack, while Australia will hope their bowling unit can once again frustrate the hosts.
Head to Head Record
Australia and Pakistan have squared off in 113 ODI matches to date, with Australia holding the upper hand with 72 wins, while Pakistan has won 37. At Gaddafi Stadium, these two teams have met in 9 matches, with Australia winning five and the home team, Pakistan, snatching a win in four.
Australia’s dominance has largely been while batting first, whereas Pakistan has dominated while bowling first at Gaddafi Stadium. Therefore, Pakistan has a better chance of winning this match if they bowl first, and vice versa for Australia, as they can dominate if they bat first.
RECENT PERFORMANCE
PAK
L
W
L
W
L
PAK
114/10 in 23.3 4.85
BAN vs PAK 2026
Pakistan beat Bangladesh by 128 runs (D/L) method274/10 in 47.3 5.77
115/2 in 15.1 7.58
BAN vs PAK 2026
Bangladesh beat Pakistan by 8 wickets114/10 in 30.4 3.72
AUS
W
L
L
W
W
AUS
131/3 in 21.1 6.19
AUS vs IND 2025
Australia beat India by 7 wickets (D/L) method136/9 in 26.0 5.23
HEAD TO HEAD
Last 5 Matches
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TEAMS PREVIEW
Pakistan Preview
Pakistan enter the series decider knowing they missed a golden opportunity in the second ODI. Their bowlers once again performed exceptionally well, restricting Australia to only 231/9, but the batting lineup failed to build partnerships and were eventually bowled out for 190.
Pakistan's batting struggled in the previous match despite Shadab Khan's fighting 71 off 104 balls. Ghazi Ghori contributed 37, while Arafat Minhas chipped in with 33, but the top order failed to provide a solid platform. Babar Azam, Sahibzada Farhan and Salman Ali Agha will need to take greater responsibility in the series decider.
The hosts possess enough quality in the middle order, but converting starts into big scores remains crucial if they are to challenge Australia.
Pakistan's bowling attack continues to be their biggest strength. Shaheen Afridi led from the front with 3 wickets in the second ODI, while Arafat Minhas and Abrar Ahmed picked up two wickets each. Haris Rauf also delivered an impressive spell and finished with two wickets.
Their ability to exploit home conditions and dominate the middle overs through spin could once again prove decisive.
Key Stats
1. Arafat Minhas has taken 7 wickets in the series.
2. Ghazi Ghori is the leading run-scorer for Pakistan in the series with 102 runs.
3. Shadab Khan top-scored for Pakistan with 71 runs in the previous match.
Why Can Pakistan Win This Game?
Pakistan possess the stronger bowling attack and have consistently controlled large phases of the series through their spinners. If Babar Azam and Salman Ali Agha provide stability with the bat, Pakistan have enough quality to clinch the decider.
Key Players: Ghazi Ghori, Arafat Minhas, Shadab Khan
Pakistan Predicted Playing XI:
Sahibzada Farhan, Maaz Sadaqat, Babar Azam, Ghazi Ghori (wk), Salman Ali Agha, Abdul Samad, Shadab Khan, Arafat Minhas, Shaheen Afridi (c), Haris Rauf, Abrar Ahmed.
Pakistan Key Players From Previous Game Of Australia tour of Pakistan, 2026
Pakistan Actual Playing XI:
Arafat Minhas, Abdul Samad, Babar Azam, Ghazi Ghori, Sahibzada Farhan, Agha Salman, Maaz Sadaqat, Shadab Khan, Shaheen Afridi, Abrar Ahmad, Haris Rauf
Australia Preview
Australia produced an outstanding comeback performance in the second ODI to level the series. Their batting unit showed far greater composure, while the bowlers completely controlled Pakistan's chase to force a winner-takes-all contest.
Josh Inglis anchored the innings with 51 runs, while Cameron Green scored a valuable 53. Matt Renshaw added 43 and Oliver Peake contributed 31 to help Australia reach a competitive 231/9.
Although Australia never completely dominated the innings, several batters made useful contributions which ultimately proved enough on a challenging surface.
Australia's bowling attack was outstanding in Lahore. Nathan Ellis delivered the match-winning spell, claiming 4 wickets for 33 runs and earning Player of the Match honours. Matthew Short surprised Pakistan with 3 wickets, while Adam Zampa and Tanveer Sangha controlled the middle overs effectively.
The visitors will once again rely on Ellis, Zampa and Sangha to put pressure on Pakistan's batting lineup.
Key Stats
1. Nathan Ellis picked up 6 wickets in the last two matches.
2. Matt Renshaw is the leading run-scorer for Australia with 104 runs in 2 matches, he scored over 40 runs in the last two matches.
3. Matthew Short is averaging four four's per match in the series.
Why Can Australia Win This Game?
Australia now carry momentum after their victory in the second ODI. Their bowling attack looked far more disciplined and their batting lineup finally produced enough partnerships to post a defendable total.
If Nathan Ellis and Adam Zampa continue their excellent form, Australia have every chance of securing a series victory.
Key Players: Nathan Ellis, Josh Inglis, Matt Renshaw
Australia Predicted Playing XI:
Alex Carey, Matthew Short, Josh Inglis (c & wk), Marnus Labuschagne, Cameron Green, Matt Renshaw, Oliver Peake, Nathan Ellis, Tanveer Sangha, Matthew Kuhnemann, Adam Zampa.
Australia Key Players From Previous Game Of Australia tour of Pakistan, 2026
Australia Actual Playing XI:
Cameron Green, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Marnus Labuschagne, Ollie Peake, Matt Renshaw, Matthew Short, Adam Zampa, Alex Carey, Nathan Ellis, Cooper Connolly
PITCH AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
Weather Conditions
The weather in Lahore is expected to remain hot and dry throughout the match. Temperatures will hover around 34-35°C with no significant threat of rain. Conditions should be ideal for a full uninterrupted ODI.
PAK vs AUS Pitch Report
Pitch Condition
BattingBatting Conditions
High ScoringPace Bowling
Pace BounceSpin Bowling
Average Turn
Gaddafi Stadium generally offers good batting conditions, although bowlers have enjoyed more assistance than usual during this series. Fast bowlers can extract movement early with the new ball, while spinners become increasingly effective during the middle overs. Teams crossing the 270-run mark are likely to hold a significant advantage.
Score Prediction
If Australia Bat 1st - 230-250 runs
If Pakistan Bat 1st - 240-260 runs
Toss: To Bat
Teams batting first won five of the nine head to head matches played between these teams at Gaddari Stadium, so chasing is going to be slightly tricky as seen in the last match, teams that win the toss will look to bat first and defend.
Toss Prediction - Pakistan to win the coin toss
PAK vs AUS
Winning Prediction
The series decider is expected to be closely contested, but Pakistan still hold a slight advantage because of home conditions and their superior spin attack. While Australia gained momentum through their second ODI victory, Pakistan have arguably been the more consistent bowling side throughout the series.
Australia's chances will largely depend on Nathan Ellis, Josh Inglis and Cameron Green continuing their recent form. However, Pakistan's bowling depth and familiarity with Lahore conditions make them marginal favourites heading into the final ODI.
Pakistan to Win the series (2-1)
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